[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271630
SWODY1
SPC AC 271629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 50 WNW GBN
25 NE TRM 25 ENE DAG 35 WNW DRA 25 SSW NFL 20 WSW LOL 35 NNW OWY 50
SW MQM 50 SW COD 20 SW CPR 45 W BFF 10 SE AIA 25 SW OFK 15 WSW FNB
20 E EMP 35 N END 45 W GAG 20 ESE CNM 75 SSW GDP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NE MQT 25 WNW RHI
20 NW EAU 35 WNW MSP 35 N AXN 20 WSW INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PSX 55 SSE AUS
20 NNE AUS 40 NNE ACT 40 S PRX 30 E TXK 15 WNW MLU 30 NNW BTR 10 NNE
MSY 25 WSW PNS 25 SSW MGM 25 SSE ATL 30 NE AGS 30 SE ILM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN THE POLAR WLY OVER THE N PACIFIC
IN RECENT DAYS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NOAM THIS PERIOD.  LEAD IMPULSE
IN THIS FLOW...NOW OVER SRN BC/NRN ID...EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SE INTO
THE NRN PLNS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  AS IT DOES SO...EXISTING SRN
BRANCH LOW OVER WRN NV EXPECTED TO SHEAR EWD INTO UT.

...UT/WRN CO...
60+ KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH NV UPR LOW WILL SHIFT ENE
ACROSS UT/WRN CO LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...ENHANCING DEEP SHEAR OVER
REGION.  RAOB AND SATELLITE DATA DEPICT CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...SUPPORTING BANDS OF HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION/STORMS THAT HAVE PERSISTED SINCE THE OVERNIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN LIMITED /AVERAGE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/...BUT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION AS HEATING RESULTS IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES LATER
TODAY. ALTHOUGH UPR SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...COMBINATION OF
MODERATE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT FORMATION OF SMALL SCALE BOW SEGMENTS
WITH HIGH WIND...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN UT INTO WRN CO.  FARTHER NW...A
FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS MAY YIELD HAIL CLOSER TO RESIDUAL UPR
LOW CENTER INTO NE NV/NW UT.

...CNTRL HI PLNS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE CNTRL HI
PLNS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NRN PLNS.  NEVERTHELESS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE AND FRONTAL UPLIFT MAY SUPPORT SMALL CLUSTERS
OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS OVER CNTRL HI PLNS TONIGHT... SPREADING
E INTO THE LWR PLNS/MID AND LWR MO VLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

...E TX/WRN LA...
A POCKET OF STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2500 J PER
KG/ LIKELY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INVOF WEAK LOW/CONFLUENCE
ZONE OVER THE SABINE RIVER VLY...WHERE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP
NLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS.  WHILE A LIMITED CONDITIONAL
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL...STRONG AND LIKELY
STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE SUCH DEVELOPMENT.

..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 09/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.