[SWODY1] SWODY1

Severe Weather Outlook Day 1 SWODY1 at goshenarc.org
Mon Sep 26 19:40:18 UTC 2005


ACUS01 KWNS 261937
SWODY1
SPC AC 261935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2005

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE GLS 50 ESE CLL
25 W CLL 15 NNW ACT 30 NW PRX 25 SE MKO 20 NNW FYV 20 SE UNO 25 N
DYR 35 S CKV 40 NNW CSV 55 W UNI 30 NE FDY 75 NE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW EKA 45 SE MHS
30 NW NFL 50 ESE U31 30 NNE U24 25 W U28 25 WSW PGA 45 SSW GCN 45 SE
EED 60 WSW SAN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NEW ENGLAND/MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND AN EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTEND
ROUGHLY 100-200MI AHEAD OF SHARPENING COLD FRONT.  LATEST
RADAR/DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONFIRM THIS MORE FOCUSED BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO WHERE SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED BENEATH
PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS ALONG WIND SHIFT. WITH STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS/VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER IN
THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS IF THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE
ADVANCING BOUNDARY.  OTHERWISE...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITHIN WEAK LAPSE RATE/MEAGER INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT.

...SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE...

SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS REMNANT UPPER VORT CENTER
DROPS SWD ACROSS ERN AL.  BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS SLOWLY
DESTABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF THICKER CLOUDINESS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
UPPER VORT.  IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THERE REMAINS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED
PROFILES.  PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT HAIL BUT RATHER A BRIEF TORNADO
IS ABOUT ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED.

..DARROW.. 09/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.








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