[SWODY1] SWODY1

Severe Weather Outlook Day 1 SWODY1 at goshenarc.org
Tue Sep 27 00:50:09 UTC 2005


ACUS01 KWNS 270047
SWODY1
SPC AC 270046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2005

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 45 ENE PIE 10 NNW
VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRE 25 ESE CLT
25 E TRI 25 SSW CRW 25 S AOO 40 SE BUF 10 SSE ART 20 ENE MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW EKA 50 NE RBL
20 SSW RNO 35 ESE BIH 40 E NID 40 SSE DAG 30 WNW SAN 60 WSW SAN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN STATES...
BROAD WARM CONVEYER BELT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTN. 
ABSENCE OF HEATING AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES KEPT INSTABILITY
VERY LOW AND TSTMS ISOLD.  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MIGRATING ACROSS THE MID-UPPER OH VLY ATTM.  ASSOCIATED COOLING IN
THE H7-H5 LAYER SPREADING ATOP RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE HAS BEEN
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE SYNOPTIC FRONT
FROM ERN NY INTO CNTRL PA.  THE COLUMN WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
WITH TIME THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES...ESPECIALLY
ALOFT AND COULD SUPPORT EVENING TSTMS DOWNSTREAM FROM ABOUT THE NYC
AREA NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.  VERY STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS EXIST
ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH 00Z SOUNDINGS /ALB...IAD IN PARTICULAR/
SHOW A STABLE LAYER WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL. IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS /POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WINDS/ TO THE SURFACE FOR A FEW HOURS YET THIS EVENING...
BUT OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MINIMAL.

..RACY.. 09/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.








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