[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261629
SWODY1
SPC AC 261628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GLS 55 E CLL 35
SSW TYR 40 N PRX MKO 15 WNW JLN SZL 40 NNW COU 35 SSW SPI BMG 20 W
DAY 35 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW EKA 45 SE MHS
30 NW NFL 50 ESE U31 30 NNE U24 25 W U28 25 WSW PGA 45 SSW GCN 45 SE
EED 25 NNW SAN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND UPR AIR DATA INDICATE THAT REMNANTS OF "RITA" HAVE
BECOME NEARLY COMPLETELY ABSORBED INTO INCREASING WLY FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE UPR OH VLY/NERN U.S. UPSTREAM IMPULSE WHICH WAS
OVER WY/CO YESTERDAY HAS ADVANCED TO IA/MO.  THE LATTER SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY TODAY AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC CST BY EARLY TUESDAY AS RIDGE REBOUNDS OVER THE RCKYS/HI
PLNS.

DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD WLY IMPULSE AND REMNANTS
OF RITA WILL PROGRESS E TO THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING AND OFF THE NRN AND MID ATLANTIC CST TONIGHT.  SRN PART OF
FRONT WILL PROGRESS MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE ERN GULF CST REGION AND 
SOUTHEAST.

...MID ATLANTIC/NERN STATES...
A MOIST ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
IN AREA CLOSE TO LOW/MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF RITA.  LATER TODAY...
LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH IA/MO TROUGH WILL
OVERTAKE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS.  THIS MAY
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY
FROM MD/PA NWD.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE E OFF THE CST BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

PREFRONTAL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK.  THUS...DESPITE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SHALLOW SUPERCELLS /SSWLY LLJ
AOA 50 KTS/...LIMITED LAPSE RATES AND ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.  A
FEW CELLS MAY...NEVERTHELESS...YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN ERN PA/NJ NEWD INTO NEW ENG LATER
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.  OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO
ERN VA/NC LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.

...ERN GULF CST REGION...
RADAR AND VWP DATA SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER ATTM
OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.  THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER SRN MS/AL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. 
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE IS TROUGH NOW EXTENDING NNE/SSW
ACROSS ERN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.  AREA W OF VORT IS STRONGLY
CAPPED...WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT BOTH W AND E OF
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH IS...IN SOME SENSE...A WEAK
WARM FRONT...WITH THE WARMER AIR TO THE WEST.

ENHANCED LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WITH VORT MAX LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN A
KINEMATIC PROFILE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS
OF SRN AL/SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE TODAY.  SURFACE HEATING/WEAK
WARM ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE NEW STORMS INVOF THE
VORT.  IF SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO INDEED FORM...A LIMITED THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES PRESENT AT LOW LEVELS.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.