[SWODY1] SWODY1

Severe Weather Outlook Day 1 SWODY1 at goshenarc.org
Mon Sep 26 12:20:37 UTC 2005


ACUS01 KWNS 261217
SWODY1
SPC AC 261215

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 W CAR 25 W 3B1 50
S BHB ...CONT... 50 SSW GLS 40 W HOU 40 SE AUS 35 NW AUS 40 W ACT 25
SSW DAL 45 SSE MLC 30 SE FYV 25 ESE UMN 30 SW SZL 30 NNW SZL 35 WSW
BRL 30 SSE CGX 25 SSE MKG 65 ESE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LGB 45 SW SBA
35 W PRB 20 SE SJC 40 N UKI 40 NNW SVE 35 WNW LOL 50 NNW U31 30 E
ELY 45 WNW 4HV 50 ESE PGA 50 ENE PHX 40 SSE EED 25 NE TRM 35 SSW
LGB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...
REMNANTS OF RITA REFLECTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS
OH VALLEY BEING FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT FROM MI SWWD INTO OK. ALOFT A
FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH ENTERING WRN OH VALLEY WILL REACH ATLANTIC
COAST BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND PCPN ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG LOW/MID
WIND FIELDS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.  WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS
NOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS APPALACHIANS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEATING AND SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TODAY FOR
SUPPORT OF STRONG CONVECTION.  ADDITIONALLY LAPSE RATES GENERALLY
LESS THAN 6 C/KM  WILL ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY.

ALTHOUGH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL ACCOMPANY THE LARGE AREA OF 
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.  THUS HAVE DOWNGRADED THE RISK E OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

..HALES/GUYER.. 09/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.








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