[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 251950
SWODY1
SPC AC 251948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
STJ 10 NW MHK 15 ESE CNK 30 WNW BIE 15 E OLU 30 NNW OMA 50 W DSM 45
ENE DSM 40 SW OTM 35 ENE STJ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
EVV 40 N SDF 25 SSE LUK 35 E LEX 10 NNW CSV 15 E ANB 10 SSW TOI 50 N
MOB 35 NE MCB 30 SW JAN 35 SSE MKL 55 WSW HOP 20 NE PAH 30 NNW EVV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BML 25 WNW ORH
25 NNE POU 30 E CXY 35 NE SSU 30 SSE JKL 35 E CHA 15 NE LGC 25 SSE
TLH ...CONT... 25 SSW LCH 20 NW HEZ 40 WSW DYR 60 SE VIH 20 N SZL 35
ENE EMP 15 WSW HUT IML 30 SE DEN 35 SSE RKS 45 NW LND 20 ENE COD SHR
35 WNW RAP 20 SE ANW 20 NNW OTG 30 ENE VOK 20 NE PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MRY 30 SSW MER
45 NNW BFL LAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MS/AL NWD INTO PARTS OF
TN/KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS NEWD INTO
LOWER MI...

...MS/AL NWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF RITA ARE NOW CENTERED OVER NERN AR.  PROMINENT
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT CIRCULATION IS INDICATED ATTM
INVOF THE MS /AL BORDER -- WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS. 
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD/CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF MS AND AL.

AREA WSR-88D VWPS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES /AS
HIGH AS 45 KT IN THE LOWEST KM/...FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LIMITED NWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD SLOWLY NWD THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS AS FAR N AS KY.

...SERN NEB/NERN KS ENEWD TO LOWER MI...
BAROCLINIC ZONE -- COMPRISED OF A FRONT AND SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL
OUTFLOWS -- EXTENDS FROM WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NEB ENEWD ACROSS
SRN IA / SRN WI INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE GENERALLY LIMITED
DESTABILIZATION ALONG MOST OF THIS BOUNDARY...THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING
OVER SERN NEB/NERN KS AND INTO SWRN IA/FAR NWRN MO HAS AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.

AIRMASS ACROSS THE SERN NEB/NERN KS REGION REMAINS CAPPED...WITH
DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.  FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER...COMBINED WITH FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF WEAK LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW
SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP.  WITH LATEST FBY /FAIRBURY NEB/
PROFILER INDICATING INCREASINGLY-STRONG FLOW WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE
MID TROPOSPHERE...RESULTING LONG HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

FURTHER ENEWD ALONG BOUNDARY...STORMS HAVE SHOWN MARGINAL/TRANSIENT
ORGANIZATION -- BOTH ON THE STORM SCALE AND MESOSCALE. STRONGEST
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO...OR POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.  OVERALL HOWEVER...GENERAL LACK OF
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THREAT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.