[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 251640
SWODY1
SPC AC 251639

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
MTO 30 NW HUF 35 SSE IND 35 NE SDF 60 E BWG 20 W CHA 30 SE BHM 30 SW
SEM 15 E LUL 35 NE MCB 30 SW JAN 25 S MKL 20 SE CGI 15 SE BLV 30 WSW
MTO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
STJ 20 NNE MHK 25 WNW CNK 25 E HSI 25 E OLU 10 NW SPW 15 W MCW 45
NNW OTM 40 SW OTM 35 ENE STJ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
OSC 40 NNE GRR 30 ENE MKG 25 WNW MKG 25 WSW MBL 10 N TVC 25 NNE APN
45 ENE OSC 40 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BML 25 WNW ORH
25 NNE POU 15 E IPT 25 N BKW 10 SSW JKL 15 ESE CHA 15 WNW LGC 25 SSE
TLH ...CONT... 25 WSW GLS 30 ESE LFK 15 NNW ELD 30 SSE HRO 25 SSW
JLN 20 NE END 25 NW LBL 30 WSW COS 45 ENE GJT 45 N VEL 25 N JAC 15
NNE COD 10 S 81V 30 SW PHP 10 SE HON 25 ESE RWF 15 SW CWA 20 NE PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 10 N VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MRY 30 SSW MER
45 NNW BFL LAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE TN/LWR OH AND LWR MS
VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING OVER THE LWR MO
VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LWR
MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF RITA APPEAR TO BE BECOMING RAPIDLY ABSORBED INTO THE
WLYS AS RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. SATELLITE AND RAOB
DATA ALSO SHOW APPARENT IMPULSE IN THE WLYS OVER MN/WRN WI...
DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WY AND CO.

AT LWR LEVELS...EXPECT DIFFUSE SURFACE WAVE NOW IN WI TO BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND MOVE E/NE ALONG STALLED FRONT INTO NRN MI. 
TRAILING PART OF FRONT W OF WAVE SHOULD ACCELERATE ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLNS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.

...TN/LWR OH/LWR MS VLYS...
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM RITA IS NOW OVER NE AR.  SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE NE TO NEAR EVV/SDF BY 12Z MONDAY.  ASSOCIATED BAND OF
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW NOW OVER CNTRL MS SHOULD REACH WRN PARTS OF
MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING NE INTO ERN KY EARLY
MONDAY.

MAIN CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING SE/S FROM RITA...ASSOCIATED WITH BAND
OF TSTM/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH
THE DAY.  DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION LIKELY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME
STRENGTHENING OF THE STORMS...AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASED TORNADO
THREAT.  THIS THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS NRN MS/W TN...WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MOST STRONGLY BACKED.  ADDITIONAL...MORE
DISCRETE STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS IN ZONE OF
STRONGER HEATING OVER AL AND MIDDLE TN.  50+ KT SLY LLJ WILL RESULT
IN ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN THIS REGION AND AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS.  BUT A LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES LIKELY WILL PERSIST
INTO THE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY NWD INTO PARTS OF KY AND THE LWR OH VLY.


...LWR MO VLY...
MID LEVEL COOLING WILL OVERSPREAD THE LWR MO VLY REGION TONIGHT AS
FAIRLY POTENT IMPULSE OVER WY/CO CONTINUES EWD.  SEGMENT OF COLD
FRONT NOW IN S CNTRL NEB/NW KS SHOULD CONTINUE SE TODAY.  E OF
THERE...BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW SE PROGRESS ACROSS IA/WI
UNTIL WY/CO SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER.

EXPECT MODERATE BUT CAPPED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM SE NE/NRN KS/NW MO/SW IA WITH MLCAPE
TO 1500 J/KG.  HEATING AND FRONTAL UPLIFT MAY YIELD STORM INITIATION
ALONG BOUNDARY.  MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER...INITIATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
THIS EVENING WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONGER COOLING ALOFT WITH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED.  50+ KT
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING HAIL.

...NRN MI...
MODERATE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.