[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 260046
SWODY1
SPC AC 260044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
ANB 25 NW AUO 25 S AUO 20 ESE TOI 30 SW TOI 70 NNE MOB 35 W LUL 40
SSW JAN 25 WSW JAN 50 WSW CBM 20 SE TUP 30 N MSL 45 S BNA 35 WNW CHA
25 SW CHA 20 ENE ANB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BML 35 NW GFL 25
SSE SYR 25 ENE DUJ PKB 20 NE JKL 35 E CHA 15 NE LGC 25 SSE TLH
...CONT... 55 SW PNS 30 WNW GPT 25 SSE HEZ 30 N HEZ 30 SE GLH 20 WNW
TUP 45 ENE DYR 15 E MDH 35 NNW STL 25 WSW P35 20 ESE HSI 20 NNW MCK
IML 25 SE FCL 35 SW LAR 15 NW RWL 45 NW CPR 20 SSE GCC 30 WSW PHP 15
N 9V9 20 NNW OTG 30 ENE VOK 170 ENE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MRY 20 SSE PRB
25 NE SBA 10 WSW LAX 65 W SAN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP
S...

...DEEP S...
A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPPING NWD INTO REMNANT RITA CONTRIBUTED TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS MS/AL THIS AFTN. MINIMAL CINH AND
CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WERE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS
TSTMS. A 40-KT SLY LLJ BENEATH WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW CREATED
VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LOW LCLS AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SRH WERE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

00Z SURFACE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW THE STRONGER INSTABILITY HAS
COLLAPSED IN AREAL EXTENT...NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO CNTRL/SRN MS AND
CNTRL AL WITH DECREASING CAPE FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.  00Z BMX/JAN
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT 1300-1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND 0-1KM SHEAR AOA 30 KTS.

AS REMNANT RITA CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH
VLY...THE H92-H85 JET SHOULD TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE TN VLY/MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT...AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  AS A RESULT...THE
TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER ABOUT MID-
EVENING.

...CORN BELT AND MIDWEST...
SURFACE BASED TSTMS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS
THE CORN BELT AS HEATING HAS BEEN AT A PREMIUM AND INHIBITION TOO
STRONG.  MOREOVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS WEAK OWING TO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH REMNANT RITA.  STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE
HAS BEEN LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM ECNTRL IA ACROSS SERN WI INTO CNTRL
LWR MI.  SUSPECT THAT THE TSTMS ARE ROOTED ATOP A SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z DTX/ILX SOUNDINGS.  WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED EFFECTIVELY DECREASING
WIND RISKS.  WILL MAINTAIN SUB-SLGT WIND PROBABILITIES IN CASE A
STRONGER TSTM DOWNDRAFT MAY BE ABLE TO PENETRATE THE STABLE LAYER. 
HAIL DOES NOT SEEM TO MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE POOR LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT.

..RACY.. 09/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.