[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 251235
SWODY1
SPC AC 251234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
SPI 30 NW HUF 25 ENE BMG 20 NE SDF 60 E BWG 40 WSW CHA 15 SE BHM 30
WSW SEM 20 ESE LUL 35 S JAN 45 E MLU 10 ESE PBF 45 S UNO 35 E VIH 30
SSE SPI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
STJ 25 WSW MHK 40 NNE RSL 15 NNW GRI 30 N OFK 10 ENE OTG 15 E MCW 35
N OTM 30 SW OTM 30 E STJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW GLS 30 S LFK
35 NNE GGG 30 SSE UMN 25 SSW JLN 20 NE END 25 NW LBL 30 WSW COS 45
ENE GJT 45 N VEL 25 N JAC 15 NNE COD 20 SE GCC 40 WSW PHP 25 NW 9V9
35 ENE ATY 60 N EAU 20 NE PLN ...CONT... 20 WNW EFK 10 WNW RUT 30 NW
POU 20 SW IPT 20 NW BKW 10 SSE JKL 35 NNW TYS 15 ESE CHA 15 WNW LGC
25 SSE TLH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN AND
OH VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY...

...LOWER MS AND WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS...
FORMER HURRICANE RITA LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AR THIS AM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NEWD INTO WRN TN VALLEY TONIGHT.  VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES OBSERVED ON THE 88D VWP'S WITH IN EXCESS OF 40KT OF SFC-1KM
SHEAR FROM MS NWD INTO WRN TN VALLEY.  WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY FILL THRU THE PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
MINI-TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD FROM CURRENT POSITION NERN AR SWD THRU WRN
MS.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT BY LATER
THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM THRU THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO
MID 70S SUPPORT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. 

...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS NOW PRIMARILY ELEVATED AND MOVING EWD
INTO UPPER MS VALLEY.  COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM CENTRAL MN INTO
CENTRAL NEB THEN TO ERN CO.  FRONT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW SEWD PROGRESS
TODAY UNTIL UPSTREAM VIGOROUS S/WV CURRENTLY CROSSING ROCKIES MOVES
INTO HIGH PLAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ERN NEB INTO NRN KS WITH MLCAPES
 TO 1500 J/KG. WITH AID FROM LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FRONTAL
LIFT...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

..HALES/GUYER.. 09/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.