[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 250553
SWODY1
SPC AC 250552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
SPI 30 NW HUF 25 ENE BMG 20 NE SDF 60 E BWG 40 WSW CHA 15 SE BHM 30
WSW SEM 20 ESE LUL 35 S JAN 45 E MLU 10 ESE PBF 45 S UNO 35 E VIH 30
SSE SPI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW EFK 10 WNW RUT
45 WSW ALB 20 SW IPT 20 NW BKW 10 SSE JKL 35 NNW TYS 15 ESE CHA 15
WNW LGC 25 SSE TLH ...CONT... 25 WSW GLS 30 S LFK 35 NNE GGG 30 SSE
UMN 15 SW JLN 40 N END 35 NNW LBL 30 WSW COS 45 ENE GJT 45 N VEL 25
N JAC COD 20 SE GCC 40 WSW PHP 25 WNW 9V9 25 ENE ATY 25 NNW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID
MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...


REMNANTS OF RITA ARE FORECAST BY NHC TO TURN NEWD ACROSS ARK SUNDAY
TO NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WLYS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS E AND NE OF THE CENTER FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
SYSTEM ENTRAINING DRY AIR. THIS MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. 


...GREAT LAKES AREA...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF AND N OF THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITHIN THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NWD FROM RITA. THE
LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
EXISTS WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG OR S OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL/GUYER.. 09/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.