[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 250101
SWODY1
SPC AC 250059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
HLC 10 NE GLD 35 E AKO 30 ENE SNY 15 NE MHN 40 SE 9V9 25 W BKX 15
WSW RWF 35 SE MKT 45 WSW ALO 15 NW DSM 20 ENE LNK 50 S EAR 35 WNW
HLC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
7R4 40 NW HEZ 20 E ELD 45 NE TXK 35 ESE PGO 20 SSE FYV 35 NE HRO 35
W POF 30 WNW DYR 15 NNW CBM 10 WSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ERI 20 WNW LBE
10 SW EKN 35 ENE 5I3 25 W LOZ 35 SSE BNA 20 NE BHM 30 SE TLH
...CONT... 20 SSE BPT 25 NNW LCH 20 NW POE 25 SE GGG 25 SSE TYR 30
ESE DAL 25 SSE ADM 50 NW MLC 40 ENE BVO 50 NNE JLN 25 ESE MKC 10 NNW
FLV 30 SE CNK 15 ENE GCK 40 S EHA 15 E CVS 40 SSW ROW 25 SE ALM 35
NW ALM 45 W RTN 15 SW GUC 25 WSW GJT 60 WNW 4HV 55 E ELY 50 WNW ENV
45 W SUN 40 WSW 27U 35 WNW DLN 25 SSE LVM 35 N SHR 25 NNW REJ 10 SE
BIS 35 WNW FAR 30 NNW ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRE FLO 30 ENE
CAE 35 S CLT 45 ESE CLT 30 E FAY 30 SE OAJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB...SRN SD INTO PART OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS CONTINUE WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS FROM ERN LA
THROUGH MS AND ARK WELL TO THE E AND NE OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM RITA WHICH IS NOW LOCATED NEAR SHREVEPORT LA. RITA IS 
FORECAST BY NHC TO CONTINUE A NWD OR NNEWD MOVEMENT TONIGHT AND MAY
BEGIN TO SLOW ITS NWD MOTION. SOME DECREASE IN NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS
IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE...MAINLY FROM ARK...MS
AND EXTREME WRN TN...WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING SLOWLY NWD OVERNIGHT.


...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SWRN THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN NEB
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO LINES
OR CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NERN
NEB WHERE STORMS MAY INTERACT WITH THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
STABILIZE. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT FROM
WRN AND CNTRL NEB INTO SRN AND WRN SD WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET.
NUMEROUS ELEVATED STORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN WY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS FEATURE...AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGION WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT FOR
HAIL.

..DIAL.. 09/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.