[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 230110
SWODY1
SPC AC 230109

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
BUF JHW 15 SW FKL 15 W CMH 25 WSW IND 30 SE SPI 20 SSW PIA 30 N PIA
15 SW CGX 25 SW LAN 85 NE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG 25 SE GFL 20
WSW POU CXY 45 W EKN 35 SE SDF 20 NNE POF 20 SSW JLN 20 SW END 40
WNW LBB 55 SE ELP ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 30 SE PHX 10 S FLG 20 SW PGA
45 ENE BCE 20 NNW U28 45 E VEL 50 SW LAR 35 ESE CYS 30 NW IML 50 NNE
HLC 25 SSE BIE 25 W OTM 35 NW CGX 10 SSW GRR 70 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PSX 45 ENE LFK
25 ENE GWO 10 NE RMG 15 SW CAE 40 ENE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MQM WEY 35 NE
JAC 15 W BPI 10 WNW SLC 40 W DPG 40 SE EKO 40 S OWY 45 NNE OWY 30 NW
SUN 25 W MQM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES AREA...

...OH VALLEY AREA...

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH NRN
IND INTO CNTRL IL WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SEWD OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE S
OF THE FRONT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM IL THROUGH IND AND WRN
OH WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FARTHER NEWD TOWARD PA AND
NY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE WSWLY LOW LEVEL
JET WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE NERN STATES AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS
SUGGESTS THE STRONGER FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH TIME. THIS IN
ADDITION TO THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME  UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON
THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SMALL SCALE BOWS AND SUPERCELLS WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

...WRN GULF COASTAL REGION...

BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA CONTINUE TO MOVE
INLAND ALONG THE CNTRL AND WRN GULF. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
CURRENTLY NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
LATER TONIGHT AS RITA CONTINUES NWWD. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEEDED TO SUPPORT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL FRIDAY.

..DIAL.. 09/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.