[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 212002
SWODY1
SPC AC 212000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
MTW 25 NW MKE 25 ENE DBQ 20 ESE ALO 45 WNW DSM 35 NNW OMA 25 S YKN
FSD 45 SSW AXN 35 E BRD 20 ENE DLH 30 SW CMX 40 E MQT 20 SE ESC 15
NE MTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 ENE OSC 25 SW FNT
15 NW DEC 20 SSW UIN MKC 15 SSW GLD PUB 50 SSW ALS 75 SSW DMN
...CONT... 45 SE CZZ 45 W EED 40 NNE LAS 30 NW P38 40 S U31 10 E WMC
45 E BOI 15 SE DLN 20 ESE LVM 20 E COD 45 NNW CPR CDR 35 NNE ANW 10
N MHE 35 W AXN 10 W BJI 30 NNE INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW PFN 45 NE ABY
10 WNW CLT 10 W RDU 50 NE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DYR 30 WSW CHA 10 W
ANB 25 ENE MEI 50 S GLH 35 ENE ELD 25 SSE HOT 50 NNW LIT 15 ENE ARG
DYR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WRN GREAT LAKES...

...UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
SD/NEB...IS ON TRACK TO AID IN STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS MN WARM SECTOR LATER TODAY. AS THE IMPULSE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD
AID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE MAP DEPICTS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NERN SD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SCNTRL MN INTO NRN WI AND DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWWD TO SWRN NEB. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND DRYLINE...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH LATEST MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG
FROM SRN MN INTO NRN WI. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA BASED ON
RUC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR REMAINS CAPPED WITH WARMING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF 10-12C
CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST 100 J/KG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ASCENT AND CONTINUED HEATING NEAR LOW/WARM
FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SCNTRL MN AND INTO WRN WI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR
ACROSS IN THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS MID LEVEL WIND
MAX MOVES EAST FROM SD/NEB AND SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF STORM INITIATION NEAR THE LOW/WARM FRONT
WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH FOR EWD MOVING CELLS MAY INCREASE TO ABOUT 200
M2/S2. OVERALL...RELATIVELY HIGH LFC ABOVE 1.5KM SUGGESTS STORMS
COULD BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY
MERGING INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX ACROSS SERN MN AND SWRN WI AFTER
DARK. WIND/HAIL THREAT WOULD CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
WI...AND POSSIBLY BACKBUILD INTO IA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG THE
TRAILING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT FROM NRN/CNTRL IA TO NEB LATER
TODAY. 18Z RUC AND NAM FORECASTS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT CAP WILL
HOLD ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS BUT GREATER
THREAT/POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST FROM MN...PERHAPS INTO EXTREME
IA...AND INTO WI.

...ID/UT/WY/...
EJECTING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ON CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF
50-60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..CARBIN.. 09/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.