[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220054
SWODY1
SPC AC 220053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
MTW 25 NW MKE 25 ENE DBQ 20 ESE ALO 45 WNW DSM 35 NNW OMA 25 S YKN
FSD 45 SSW AXN 40 E STC RHI 40 SSE IMT 15 NE MTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 ENE OSC 25 SW FNT
15 NW DEC 20 SSW UIN MKC 15 SSW GLD PUB 50 SSW ALS 75 SSW DMN
...CONT... 60 SW TUS 55 SE PRC 25 ESE BCE 10 WNW SLC 60 WNW BPI 50
NW CPR 10 WNW CDR 45 NNE ANW 25 E HON 25 NW AXN 10 WNW HIB 70 ENE
ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W PNS 30 NNE SSI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE
MID MO VLY...

...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG SURFACE HEATING
CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENING CINH FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG
A FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MN TO NCNTRL WI LATE THIS AFTN.  THE 00Z MPX
SOUNDING EXHIBITED 7.9 DEGREES C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES...60 KTS OF
VERTICAL SHEAR AND 2600 J/KG MLCAPE...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL.  MOREOVER...HODOGRAPHS SHOW AN ENLARGED LOOP IN THE
LOWEST 1KM...WITH NEARLY 30 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR.  IT APPEARS...
HOWEVER...THAT THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR TORNADOES HAS PASSED GIVEN THE
INCREASING LCLS/MIXING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE 70F DEW POINTS THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING/INCREASING
INHIBITION.

RADAR SHOWS THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO EVOLVE MORE INTO A LINE AND
WEAKEN AS WRN-MOST CELLS BEGIN TO MERGE/SEED THE TSTMS DOWNSTREAM
INTO NWRN WI.  GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE MPX SOUNDING AND THE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...COLD POOL
GENERATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING BASED ON RADAR AND THE INCREASED
NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  DESPITE THE INCREASING
INHIBITION...THE ABOVE INGREDIENTS MAY CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD
INTO SERN MN AND CNTRL WI THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY.  OTHER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM
THROUGHOUT WI AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ALONG THE NOSE OF THE SWLY
LLJ.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A STRONG IMPULSE MIGRATING EWD FROM
THE ERN GRT BASIN.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ONTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.  INCREASING LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS NEB LATER THIS EVENING...THEN TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY
LATER TONIGHT. ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR ISOLD LARGE
HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NEB OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE... DOWNSTREAM...GIVEN
THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ/INSTABILITY AXES WITH RESPECT TO THE SWD
SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM
SYSTEM...TSTMS MAY TEND TO BACKBUILD INTO PORTIONS OF SCNTRL MN AND
NRN IA DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH WWD EXTENT OF THIS OCCURRING IS
UNCERTAIN.  THE THREAT IS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SLGT
RISK...HOWEVER.

...CNTRL ROCKIES...
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN GRT BASIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAVE INTERACTED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PW PLUME SITUATED ACROSS
WRN CO THIS EVENING.  INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS AND
H5 WINDS AOA 40 KTS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ORGANIZATION.  IT APPEARS
THAT WINDOW FOR ENHANCED SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAS PASSED AND ONLY
ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WRN CO.

..RACY.. 09/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.