[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211626
SWODY1
SPC AC 211625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
LWD 35 ESE HSI 15 NW HSI 35 N EAR 15 E BUB 15 SE OTG 25 NW MSP 35
NNE BRD 25 NNW ELO 75 NW CMX 65 ENE MQT 20 SE ESC 10 E MTW 15 ESE
LNR 10 NNE CID 30 SSE DSM 40 W LWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW IPL 45 W EED
40 NNE LAS 30 NW P38 40 S U31 10 E WMC 45 E BOI 15 SE DLN 20 ESE LVM
20 E COD 45 NNW CPR CDR 35 NNE ANW 10 N MHE 35 W AXN 10 W BJI 15 NW
INL ...CONT... 60 SE OSC 25 SW FNT 15 NW DEC 20 SSW UIN MKC 15 SSW
GLD PUB 50 SSW ALS 35 SSW DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PFN 45 NE ABY
10 WNW CLT 10 W RDU 35 SE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DYR 30 WSW CHA 10 W
ANB 25 ENE MEI 50 S GLH 35 ENE ELD 25 SSE HOT 50 NNW LIT 15 ENE ARG
DYR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
MODEL GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW BAND OF FAST ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
WESTERN SD/NEB.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING THE IMPETUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. 
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW OVER CENTRAL SD WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WI. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE.  MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOW AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP.  LOW LEVEL ASCENT NEAR LOW/WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL MN
INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS
AREA APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AFTER OOZ SUGGESTS A
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CAP STRENGTH
AFTER DARK WILL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR.  OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
MAY OCCUR NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MN...WHERE
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
SEVERE INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
WI...AND DEVELOPS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO PARTS
OF IA.

...WY/UT/CO...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER NV.  BAND OF 50-60 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
WY/CO/UT THIS AFTERNOON.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS APPARENT ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY IN THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
ENHANCE THE RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 09/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.