[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211248
SWODY1
SPC AC 211247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
LWD 35 ESE HSI 15 NW HSI 35 N EAR 15 E BUB 15 SE OTG 35 NNW MKT 40 E
BRD 30 ENE DLH 35 NE IWD 35 NNW IMT 45 S ESC 30 SE OSH 25 ESE MSN 20
SE DBQ 25 N OTM 40 W LWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GBN 45 SSE EED
55 NW EED 35 NNE TPH 40 E NFL 40 WSW WMC 50 NNE BOI DLN 35 NNE WEY
55 WSW COD 40 SE WRL 35 NNW CDR 15 SE MHE 35 NW ELO ...CONT... 110 E
OSC 15 S MBS 25 SSW AZO 35 E UIN 55 SSW IRK 25 NNE CNU 25 NE ICT 25
N RSL 50 WSW GLD 20 WNW PUB 25 N ALS 30 NNW SAF 15 WNW 4CR 45 NW GDP
65 SSW GDP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CEW 20 SSE DHN
45 S MCN 45 NNE MCN 10 WNW CLT 65 SW RIC 20 NNE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N DYR 45 NW MSL 20
ENE CBM 50 NNW MEI 15 NNW JAN 40 NNE HEZ 15 NNW MLU 25 W GLH 40 ENE
PBF 45 SW JBR 20 N DYR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM
ERN NEB NEWD TO WI/WRN UPPER MI....

...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL
MOVE EWD FROM SRN ALBERTA TO WRN ONTARIO BY TONIGHT...WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF THE CA CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT NEWD AND WEAKEN OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY...REACHING WY TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP EWD TO THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY.  THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN NEB NEWD TO WI/WRN UPPER MI.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS KS/ERN NEB WILL SPREAD
NEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE
LOW/COLD FRONT...AND BENEATH A PLUME OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 8 C/KM.  THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP AND SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE WARM SECTOR. 
THUS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO BE DELAYED UNTIL RATHER LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS MN...WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS WI TONIGHT.  FARTHER
SW...THE CAP MAY INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT FROM ERN NEB INTO
IA IN RESPONSE TO LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. 

VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING...AND DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED ACROSS THE COLD
FRONT. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR IN THE FIRST COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER INITIATION.  BY TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO
CLUSTERS AND/OR LINES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.