[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210558
SWODY1
SPC AC 210556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
LWD 35 ESE HSI 15 NW HSI 35 N EAR 15 E BUB 15 SW YKN 25 NNE OTG 65
NNE MSP 25 W IWD 45 S CMX 25 NE ESC 20 WNW TVC 30 SSE MBL 30 WSW MKG
25 WSW CGX 30 SSE MLI 15 W LWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E OSC 15 S MBS 25
SSW AZO 30 E UIN 40 S IRK 50 NE SZL 35 NE CNU 25 NE ICT 20 NNE RSL
30 NNW RSL 50 E LIC 20 WNW PUB 25 N ALS 30 NNW SAF 15 WNW 4CR 45 NW
GDP 70 SSW GDP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MEM 50 WNW MSL
20 ENE CBM 45 N MEI 15 NNW JAN 40 NNE HEZ MLU 25 N MLU 30 W GLH 45
ENE PBF 50 ENE LIT 55 SW JBR 30 N MEM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 40 SE EED
20 NNE DRA 10 NW TPH 35 E NFL 25 WNW WMC 50 NNE BOI DLN 35 N WEY 30
NE WEY 55 WSW COD 40 SE WRL 25 NNW CDR 30 SSW MHE 30 WNW FSD 30 NNW
ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW PNS 20 NNE MAI
45 NE ABY 30 SSE MCN 35 NNE MCN 35 S AHN 10 N CLT 60 E DAN 60 SW RIC
25 NE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS CA WILL OPEN AND
SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY. THIS
WILL KICK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. AS STRONG ASCENT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGHT TONIGHT.

A LACK OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
DESTABILIZATION TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL HELP TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY NWD. IF SFC
DEWPOINTS CAN INCREASE TO NEAR 60 F...SBCAPE VALUES COULD REACH THE
2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NRN WI EXTENDING SWWD INTO
SRN MN AND NERN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOLD
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OFF UNTIL EITHER LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS SRN MN OR NW IA WHERE
INSTABILITY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING SUGGESTING LIFT WILL
INCREASE CAUSING STORM COVERAGE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT. THE JET WILL
PROVIDE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE
HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN FAR ERN NEB AND NW IA WHERE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. FARTHER NORTHEAST...AN A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES
IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED IF A
COLD POOL CAN GENERATE AND DIVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON THE AVAILABILITY OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN IA AND NRN IL.

..BROYLES.. 09/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.