[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210046
SWODY1
SPC AC 210044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
FMY 20 NNE MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CTY 20 SE AYS
45 W SAV 45 WSW AGS 25 ESE ATL 15 NNE TCL 15 SE PBF 15 NE HOT 55 S
HRO HRO 10 WNW UNO 25 SE CGI 25 SE BKW 15 WSW BWI 35 N EWR 15 WSW
LCI 35 N BML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AMA 30 ENE TCC
40 N TCC 30 SE TAD 10 SSW LHX 20 NNW LAA 55 WNW GCK 25 SSW GCK 40 S
LBL 45 NE AMA 25 W AMA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S UKI 65 NNE SAC
45 S WMC 40 SSE ENV 20 WNW U28 20 E DRO 35 NW ABQ 40 WNW ONM 70 NE
SAD 20 WNW SAD 10 S FHU.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN FL...

...SRN FL...
THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS
HURRICANE RITA SW OF THE FL KEYS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WWD AWAY
FROM SRN FL BUT OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE
STILL OVER SRN FL ATTM. 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT KEY WEST AND MIAMI
FL SHOW SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF
20 TO 35 KT SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
MINI-SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINBANDS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA
MOVE OFF THE SRN FL COAST LATE.

...ERN NC/SE VA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SWIFT MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS VA AND NC...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
STORMS ONGOING THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE
VICINITY OF A SFC TROUGH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 68-72 F
ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. DUE TO THE STRONG ASCENT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST...THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. AS A CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED THIS
EVENING...THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

CONCERNING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LAPSE
RATES BELOW 6.0 C/KM WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY EAST
OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE
SUGGESTING ANY HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AND MARGINAL. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES FURTHER THIS EVENING...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION.

...SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CA. THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NEWD AND
A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY
INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS
ONGOING IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY WEAK IN
THE VALLEY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...AS STABILIZATION OCCURS THIS EVENING...STORM
INTENSITY AND THE ATTENDANT MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.

..BROYLES.. 09/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.