[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 202006
SWODY1
SPC AC 202004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
ILM 15 SE SOP 10 SSE GSO 20 W DAN 15 ENE LYH 25 E CHO 15 ESE BWI 10
SSE ILG 15 W NEL 20 E NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
FMY VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW SFO 70 SSW SVE
30 NW LOL 45 WSW TWF 25 NW MLD 35 E EVW 50 N GJT 35 NE CEZ 30 WSW
ALS 20 NNW GLD 50 WSW HLC 40 SE LBL 20 SW AMA 35 WSW CVS 35 N ALM 45
NE SAD 50 SE SAD 65 SW DMN ...CONT... 25 SSE CTY 20 SE AYS 45 W SAV
45 WSW AGS 30 ESE ATL 25 NNW LGC 30 SSE BHM 30 W TCL 25 ESE GWO 25
NW GLH 20 SSW LIT 45 N HOT 20 NNW FYV 20 ENE JLN 10 WNW TBN 60 NNW
POF 25 SE MDH 25 NE OWB 35 NE LEX 15 SE HTS 30 NW SSU 20 WNW SHD 20
NW ABE 10 E BAF 10 WSW LCI EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN FL...

...MID ATLANTIC...
TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM
THE PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL
LIFT WILL ACT ON STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE CAROLINAS NEWD
TO SRN NJ TO PROMOTE STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS. MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING AND RESULT IN PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS.

...SRN FL...
LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF FL REMAINS VERY INTENSE IN THE
NERN QUADRANT OF HURRICANE RITA. STRONGER FEEDER BAND CELLS TRACKING
NWWD OR NNWWD WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG 0-1KM SRH
ON THE ORDER OF 150-300 M2/S2. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING AS CENTER OF RITA PASSES THE DRY TORTUGAS.

...OZARKS TO TN VALLEY...
RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK CAP...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE TERRAIN
 FORCING ACROSS THE OZARKS...MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AIR MASS IS VERY HOT AND
UNSTABLE...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO
SUSTAIN SEVERE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE
HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING.

...SRN CA TO SRN GREAT BASIN...
AFTER A BIT OF A LULL...CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE LA BASIN. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE UPPER LOW NOW
BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND AND IMPINGE FURTHER ON ELEVATED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PLUME. SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. AN ISOLATED HAIL STORM OR
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 09/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.