[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201635
SWODY1
SPC AC 201634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
ILM FAY 30 NNW SOP 25 WNW DAN 20 NE SHD 10 S ABE POU 15 NNW ORH BOS
20 SW EWB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
FMY VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 25 WNW ESF
10 ENE MLU 35 S PBF 30 ESE HOT 35 ENE MLC 25 NNE MKO 25 N SGF 45 ESE
VIH 45 NW EVV 55 SSW CMH 20 N LBE 25 WSW ELM 10 WSW MSS ...CONT...
20 W CTY 35 NE AYS 40 SW AGS 35 S ATL 25 NE SEM 45 SW SEM 25 N MOB
35 SSW MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SFO 35 SE RBL
65 WNW WMC 40 SSW TWF 50 NE MLD 35 WNW RWL 25 SSE CAG 30 NE GUC 30
ESE COS 30 E GLD 50 SSW HLC 35 NW GAG 20 SW AMA 35 WSW CVS 15 S 4CR
10 ESE TCS 30 SSW SVC 65 SW DMN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO
EASTERN NC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTH FL...

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO CAROLINAS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MAINE.  CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE
BEEN AFFECTING MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TODAY
WILL EXIST FROM FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION
AND EASTERN NC.

AIR MASS FROM LONG ISLAND INTO NC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WARM/DESTABILIZE TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1500 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN PA INTO CENTRAL VA/NC...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THROUGHOUT THIS REGION
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.  ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING.

...AR/MS/TN...
RIDGING BEHIND APPALACHIANS TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TODAY. 
HOWEVER...PARTS OF AR/NORTHERN MS/WESTERN TN MAY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS
REGION...WITH JUST ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FOR A RISK OF
MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

...SOUTHWEST STATES...
LARGE PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
CA/NV/AZ TODAY...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
 SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SEE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING FOR A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST
CELLS.

...SOUTH FL...
HURRICANE RITA WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND AFFECT SOUTH FL MUCH OF TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.  FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS AND MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF STORM MAY ENHANCE THE RISK OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD INTO THE KEYS.  THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM DEPARTS REGION.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 09/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.