[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201254
SWODY1
SPC AC 201252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
ILM 20 S FAY 15 SW SOP 25 SSE GSO 45 ESE LYH 35 WSW DOV TTN 15 SSE
POU 15 SW PSF 35 NNE PSF 20 S LEB 15 ENE CON BOS 20 SW EWB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
FMY 45 ENE FMY VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW LCH 45 N POE
30 WSW MLU 20 E ELD 25 N TXK 35 SW PGO 20 ESE MKO 40 SW UMN 10 ENE
SGF 20 NE MDH 25 SSW DAY YNG 35 S ROC 30 W ART ...CONT... 15 ESE CHS
35 SE AGS 30 S ATL 45 WSW 0A8 MEI 50 ESE MCB 30 SSW GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 15 SSW
SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW UKI 20 ENE RBL
65 WNW WMC 40 SSW TWF 30 N EVW 30 NNW VEL 30 NE CNY 40 SE GUC 40 ENE
ALS 25 SE LHX 50 SE GLD 20 ESE HLC 25 NNE CNK 35 NW TOP 25 NNW EMP
35 ENE ICT 45 WNW PNC 60 ENE AMA 35 SW AMA 20 S TCC 45 N 4CR 10 NW
ONM 35 WSW TCS 40 SW DMN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM ERN NC TO SRN NEW
ENGLAND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS S FL AND THE FL
KEYS....

...NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS TODAY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER SW QUEBEC...AND A SEPARATE WAVE OVER THE OH
VALLEY.  THE QUEBEC WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRUSH
NRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD
ACROSS PA/NY NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW BY TONIGHT.  FARTHER
S...THE OH VALLEY SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING ERN
NC/VA BY THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS OH VALLEY...WHILE
A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS IS SPREADING ENEWD OVER UPSTATE NY. 
THIS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE OH VALLEY...WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEND
TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. 
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND MLCAPE VALUES TODAY WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO VALUES AOB 750 J/KG.  STILL...RELATIVELY STRONG
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. 

FARTHER S...STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM ERN NC TO SRN NJ.  HOWEVER... VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER N. 
EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  

...S FL AND THE KEYS...
TROPICAL STORM RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY WHILE
MOVING WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD PROGRESS
INTO THE OPEN SE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  AS THE STORM
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE FL KEYS...LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY ACROSS S FL AND THE KEYS. 
THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR OUTER BAND SUPERCELLS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. 

...SRN CA AREA...
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION PERSISTS THIS MORNING E OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 34 N AND 123 W.  NWD
ADVECTION OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO
SPREAD NWD IN CA AND INTO SRN NV TODAY.  THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-40 KT SLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.