[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200555
SWODY1
SPC AC 200553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
ILM 20 S FAY 15 SW SOP 25 SSE GSO 45 ESE LYH 30 SE BWI 10 ENE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
FMY 45 ENE FMY VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE CHS 35 SE AGS
30 S ATL 45 WSW 0A8 MEI 50 ESE MCB 30 SSW GPT ...CONT... 20 SSW LCH
30 NNW POE 50 N POE 30 WSW MLU 20 ESE ELD 10 NE ELD 25 N TXK 35 SW
PGO 20 ESE MKO 40 SW UMN 10 ENE SGF 20 NE MDH 25 SSW DAY YNG 35 S
ROC 30 W ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 15 S SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW UKI 20 ENE RBL
65 WNW WMC 40 SSW TWF 30 N EVW 20 NNW VEL 45 NE U28 35 NE CNY 40 SE
GUC 40 ENE ALS 25 SE LHX 50 SE GLD 20 ESE HLC 25 N CNK 35 NE CNK 35
NE MHK 30 ENE MHK 30 ESE MHK 35 ENE ICT 45 WNW PNC 60 ENE AMA 35 SW
AMA 20 S TCC 45 N 4CR 10 NW ONM 35 WSW TCS 40 SW DMN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FL...

...MID-ATLANTIC/NC...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
US AS A FAST MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SUPPORTING NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT.

THE MOST LIKELY POINT FOR THE STORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS VA AND WRN NC THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN 60S F COMBINED
WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL CREATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. IT ALSO APPEARS THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM ALSO SUGGEST THE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THE
STRONGER CELLS.

AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA
DURING THE EVENING...DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS
TO WEAKEN. ANY MARGINAL THREAT SHOULD END OVERNIGHT AS THE LINE
MOVES OFF THE COAST OF VA AND NC.

...SRN FL...
THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS TROPICAL STORM RITA TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AND SKIRT THE SRN PART OF FL TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE INNER RAINBANDS AFFECTING FAR SRN FL AND THE FL
KEYS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SRN FL
SHOW STRONG ELY FLOW ON THE NRN SIDE OF RITA WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES ABOVE 40 KT. IN ADDITION...MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SRN FL. THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL
AS RITA MOVES AWAY FROM SRN FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...CA/SRN NV...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS SRN CA AND SRN NV TODAY. STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES.. 09/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.