[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200046
SWODY1
SPC AC 200045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE
TBN 55 WNW TBN 20 SSE SZL 30 NE SZL 30 NW SPI 20 S SBN 35 SSW JXN 20
SSW ARB 30 SSE DTW 30 N MFD 20 WSW MFD 30 ENE DAY 45 S MIE MVN 35
SSE VIH 10 SSE TBN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE LGB 25 SW DAG
60 ENE DAG 40 NE FLG 20 W ABQ 15 E 4CR 40 SW ROW 70 WNW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK 10 SE RUT 10 WNW
POU 40 NNW ILG 10 WNW SHD 20 WNW TYS 25 N MSL 30 WSW MEM 50 NNW LIT
15 NW FYV 30 W JLN 30 NNE CNU MKC 30 WNW IRK 25 W CGX 45 NW BEH 20
ENE MKG 25 SE TVC 25 WNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW FMY 30 SSE VRB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A LINEAR MCS
THAT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NRN
IL SWWD INTO NCNTRL MO. ANOTHER SMALLER MCS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND IS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IND ATTM.

THE AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AS SHOWN BY RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO
3000 J/KG RANGE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT SHOULD KEEP THE
CONVECTIVE LINES GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH THE
STORMS MOVING ACROSS SRN IL...SRN IND AND SW OH. MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR AS SHOWN
BY REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS DUE TO THE SERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
JET MAX EXTENDING FROM NRN MO ENEWD INTO SRN MI. THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GOING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
BECOME LESS STEEP IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...SFC DEWPOINTS OF 64-72 F
COMBINED WITH A FAST EWD STORM MOTION WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINES. HAIL WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG ASCENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE.

THE LINES ARE FORECAST BY THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS TO CONSOLIDATE AND
MOVE SEWD ACROSS KY AND SRN OH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE DECREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING
IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 09/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.