[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191248
SWODY1
SPC AC 191247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
ERI 25 SSE MFD 30 SSW LUK 25 E CGI 15 NNW UNO 15 SE JLN 35 SSE OJC
55 N SZL 10 SW MSN 30 N MBL 60 E ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 70 N AYS 40
NW AGS 10 ESE CLT 25 NNW RDU 40 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SRQ MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W PRB 20 WNW MER
40 SSE TVL 70 S NFL 35 SE TPH 40 SSE P38 15 SSE PGA 30 WSW 4SL 20 W
LVS 40 ENE 4CR 40 NNW GDP 55 SE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW EFK 35 SSW ALB
15 ESE CXY 25 NNW SHD 10 ENE TRI 15 W CHA 35 ENE CBM 15 N GWO 35 S
HOT 20 NW DUA 50 SSE CDS 10 WSW LBB 35 SW AMA 60 ENE AMA 50 E GAG 10
SW ICT 40 N STJ 55 WSW DSM 55 ESE SUX 25 N SUX 25 WSW FSD 30 SW ATY
45 S FAR 25 WNW RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO TO LOWER MI....

...MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES...
A BROAD NNW-SSE ORIENTED BELT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS SPREADING
ENEWD OVER IL/WI TOWARD INDIANA/MI IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INITIAL
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL WAA.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.  IN THE WAKE OF
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION...THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL WAVE NOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY AND THE
GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN NE IA WILL
DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN WI TO NRN LOWER MI BY THIS
EVENING...REACHING SW QUEBEC BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS ERN IA/WRN IL/MO THIS MORNING WILL ALSO SPREAD
EWD/NEWD ACROSS IL AND SRN WI BY MIDDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEWD...REACHING SRN LOWER MI AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. 

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S /BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL
RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. 
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW AND SWWD ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS IL/MO. 
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 35-50 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  REGARDLESS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER IN THE REGION OF WAA
IMMEDIATELY NE THROUGH SE OF THE SURFACE LOW...COINCIDENT WITH THE
ERN/NERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR.  ANY SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THIS NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

...AZ/SRN CA...
NWD ADVECTION OF L0W-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NW MEXICO TO AZ/SRN CA
IS EXPECTED AS DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CA COAST AND THE CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NW GULF COAST.  THE
MOISTENING WILL SUPPORT GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH IT
APPEARS THE NAM/GFS ARE 6-12 HOURS TOO FAST WITH THIS SCENARIO.

...S FL LATE TONIGHT...
TROPICAL STORM RITA IS DEVELOPING INVOF THE SE BAHAMAS AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WWD THROUGH TOMORROW.  IT APPEARS THAT
THE THREAT FOR MINI SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN JUST E/SE OF FL UNTIL THE
DAY 2 PERIOD.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 09/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.