[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190544
SWODY1
SPC AC 190543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
ERI 30 SE MFD 30 SSW LUK 10 WSW OWB 25 NNW POF 10 N UMN 45 N JLN 55
N SZL 10 SW MSN 20 NE TVC 60 E ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 70 N AYS 40
NW AGS 10 ESE CLT 25 NNW RDU 40 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SRQ MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W PRB 20 WNW MER
40 SSE TVL 70 S NFL 35 SE TPH 40 SSE P38 15 SSE PGA 30 WSW 4SL 20 W
LVS 40 ENE 4CR 40 NNW GDP 55 SE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW EFK 35 SSW ALB
15 ESE CXY 25 NNW SHD 10 ENE TRI 15 W CHA 35 ENE CBM 15 N GWO 35 S
HOT 20 NW DUA 50 SSE CDS 10 WSW LBB 35 SW AMA 60 ENE AMA 50 E GAG 10
SW ICT 40 N STJ 55 WSW DSM 55 ESE SUX 25 WSW YKN 25 S 9V9 50 ENE PIR
50 S JMS 15 W IWD 10 NNE MQT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS SWWD
INTO THE OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF 50-60 KT
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND TRANSLATE SEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VLY MONDAY
AFTN-NIGHT.  PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI LATE
MORNING MONDAY TO NRN LWR MI MONDAY EVENING AND INTO ONTARIO BY
EARLY TUESDAY. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GRTLKS REGION WHILE
TRAILING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND LOWER OH VLY.  THE FRONT/BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCI FOR SEVERE
TSTMS MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

...CNTRL GRTLKS REGION SWWD INTO THE OZARKS...
ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION.  THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH THE STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION QUICKLY SPREADING EWD
INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION MONDAY AFTN.  THUS...TSTMS /LIKELY
ELEVATED WITH ISOLD HAIL/ WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINED FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE PEAK HEATING HOURS ACROSS LWR MI.  THERE REMAINS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS
LATE AFTN-EVE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
EVOLVING INTO LINE SEGMENTS... SHOULD STORMS FORM.  LATER OUTLOOKS
WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON INSTABILITY CONCERNS AND COULD OFFER
HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.  

MEANWHILE...A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MO NEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL AND IND.  SWLY
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE PLUME OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  BY MID-AFTN...MLCAPES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.  THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
ATOP THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE AFTN AND RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH STORMS LIKELY BUILDING SWWD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND INTO THE INCREASING CAP ACROSS THE OZARKS.  VERTICAL SHEAR
OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONGEAL INTO A MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL-IND AND BEGIN
PRODUCING MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING IN THE MID-OH VLY OVERNIGHT. TSTMS WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE OH VLY AND MAY YIELD HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  

...EXTREME SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...
OFFICIAL NHC/TPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RITA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE
AND BE LOCATED JUST SE OF THE UPPER KEYS BY 12Z TUE.  OUTER
RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT EXTREME SRN FL/KEYS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST/TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY SQUALLS.

..RACY/BANACOS.. 09/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.