[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160037
SWODY1
SPC AC 160035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
BWD 20 SSW FTW 45 WNW TYR 10 ESE TYR 30 NW LFK CLL 15 SW AUS 35 W
JCT 30 ENE SJT 25 WNW BWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CRP LRD
...CONT... 15 S P07 MAF 35 SE LBB ADM FYV UMN 30 SE SZL SPI MMO 25
NW AZO 55 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 NE ROC ALB CON 40 SE AUG ...CONT...
20 SE SBY NHK LYH HKY AND LGC LUL 15 SSE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JMS FAR BRD 15 ENE
EAU MCW SUX 9V9 BIS JMS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL
TEXAS....

EVOLUTION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... IN
RESPONSE TO PHASING IMPULSES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES
AND SUBTROPICAL STREAM.  AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  

LATTER FEATURE IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MUCH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  WEAK CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS HAS BEEN PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...MAIN
FRONTAL ZONE...EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...HAS ALSO
BECOME FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING TODAY OCCURRED TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY...WHERE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW
RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM THIS EVENING. 
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN WEAK. 

...TEXAS...
TEMPERATURES IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE
SLOW TO COOL BELOW 90F THIS EVENING.  WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING
ONGOING IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING TOWARD THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD MAINTAIN RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO.  VEERING OF WIND FIELDS WITH
HEIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION...BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  AND...AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS STILL POSSIBLE...BEFORE THREAT ENDS WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

...NORTH CENTRAL STATES...
NEAR CREST OF AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...DOWNSTREAM OF EVOLVING
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL
BECOME FOCUSED FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  MOISTURE IS
SPARSE...BUT ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY APPEARS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHERE FORCING MAY BE ENHANCED ON NOSE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET.

..KERR.. 09/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.