[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150538
SWODY1
SPC AC 150536

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
ADM FSM ARG 25 SW CKV HSV 15 ESE CBM 40 W JAN 45 SSW SHV TPL JCT 25
W SJT 65 WSW SPS 30 NNW ADM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE CRE 15 ESE RDU
20 SE DAN 25 SW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10
WNW MCB 30 NNE LFT 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD
...CONT... 10 SSW P07 40 SSW MAF 20 S HOB 25 SW CVS 10 ENE TCC 20 E
EHA 30 ENE DDC 30 E MKC 35 SE UIN 40 NNE LAF 30 NE AZO 40 NNE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DLH 25 E RWF 40
SE BKX 15 N MHE 20 SW ABR 45 SW JMS 40 ENE DIK 65 NNW MLS 55 SSW HVR
35 NNE CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY....

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR
WESTERLIES IS DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  THIS SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
STREAM MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  MODELS
SUGGEST PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
BROADER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN BOTH
STREAMS WILL AMPLIFY TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEY.  UNTIL LATTER FEATURE PROGRESSES CLOSER TO ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS ON FRIDAY...HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AWAY FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LWR OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY....
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION TODAY NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS
THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSOLATION
FOR WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.  CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY ALONG AN AXIS FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FRONTAL WAVE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY/ TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  MODERATELY SHEARED 30+ KT MEAN FLOW
REGIME COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SEEM LIKELY TO BE PRIMARY THREATS...AND
EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
ACTIVITY WEAKENS THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MID/UPPER FORCING IS MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER TO THE WEST...ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS.  HOWEVER...CONFLUENT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WEAK CAP MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED
THIS AFTERNOON.  SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WIND FIELDS
WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST SHORT LIVED UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO PARTS OF THE PECOS VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SPARSE DUE TO STRONGER
CAPPING.  HOWEVER...STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BENEATH
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO.

...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING
STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. 
THIS MAY TEND TO MINIMIZE COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
FAVORABLY SHEARED REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY ENHANCE RISK FOR HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST
SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST NEAR 
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.

..KERR/CROSBIE.. 09/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.