[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151258
SWODY1
SPC AC 151257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
ADM FSM ARG 25 SW CKV HSV 15 ESE CBM 40 W JAN 55 S SHV 35 SSE TPL 20
SE JCT 50 WSW SJT 25 NNE BGS 30 NNW ADM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ILM 15 ESE RDU
20 SE DAN 35 SSW PSK 20 ENE HSS 30 SW AHN 30 SSW CSG 60 SSW SEM 10
WNW MCB 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 SSE
P07 40 SSW MAF 15 E CNM 25 ENE ROW 25 SSE CVS 55 ESE LBB 25 NNE LTS
10 WNW PNC 30 SW SZL 10 NNW SPI 15 ENE AZO 65 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DLH 20 W MKT 25
E BKX MBG 60 SW DIK 10 NE LVM 10 WNW HLN 95 NNE 3TH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS TO THE LWR
MS/OH/TN VLYS......

...SYNOPSIS...
THE SRN BRANCH OF AN ACTIVE TWO-STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN PLAYER IN THIS PERIOD'S SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY.  HEIGHT FALLS
ALONG THE W CST EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A REBOUND OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE SRN RCKYS.  THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD INDUCE AMPLIFICATION OF
DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLNS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES E/NE TO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS BY 12Z
FRIDAY.  DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE NOW IN ERN OK /PARTIALLY MASKED BY
RECENT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ IS LINKED TO THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE WAVE SHOULD REDEVELOP E TO THE NE AR/W TN AREA THIS AFTERNOON
...AND NE INTO THE OH VLY TONIGHT.

...OK/NE TX INTO LWR OH/TN VLYS....
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD AREA OF
CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER OK/NRN AR AND SRN MO MOVING GENERALLY
E/NE TODAY.  SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
OF REGION ON SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH
MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG FROM SE OK/NE TX
ACROSS SRN AR INTO W TN.

THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO ERN AR/W
TN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND SURFACE
WAVE REDEVELOPS ENEWD. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WARM...30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. 
EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR...WRN PORTIONS OF
TN/KY AND POSSIBLY NRN MS.  THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST SHEAR MOVE BEYOND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS.

...NWRN/CNTRL TX...
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ATTM
FOR NW/N CNTRL TX TODAY AS MAIN SRN BRANCH IMPULSE AMPLIFIES ENEWD. 
NEAR THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SURGE NOW
NEAR CDS.  A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY WITH
WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE.  BUT GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL 
HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ABI/BGS NEWD TO NEAR
SEP/MWL.

MODEST DEEP SHEAR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...
COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND.  CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AND DRY AIR
ALOFT SUGGEST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WITH
RESULTING CLUSTER LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS CNTRL TX
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.

...ERN NM/W TX...
ESELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION W OF THE CAP ROCK FROM THE TX S PLNS WWD INTO ERN NM. 
WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT QUITE
ISOLATED.  IF STORMS DO FORM...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.


...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED DEEP
SHEAR/TROPICAL INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE BAND DOWNSTREAM
FROM HRCN OPHELIA...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS IN THE SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. 
HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION.  NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW
WITH 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR...POSSIBLE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 LAYER /PER
CHH RAOB/...SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN SOME STORMS.

...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA CST...
PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST
SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUST 
TODAY.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 09/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.