[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 142159
SWODY1
SPC AC 142158

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

VALID 142200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
ADM 40 SW SPS 65 S CDS 50 E LBB 40 E PVW 35 WNW CDS 30 WNW LTS 25 N
FSI 45 SE OKC ADM 45 SSW ADM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAL
ABI 35 NE P07 MRF 50 ENE HOB AMA 30 WSW P28 40 ESE P28 JLN 30 NE UNO
25 SE MDH CKV BNA MSL CBM 30 S GWO 35 SSE TXK DAL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE
EWN 20 ENE RWI 25 SE ORF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
LBL 35 NE CAO 35 SE TAD TAD 35 SW PUB 20 NW PUB 25 SW LIC 25 NE LIC
45 WNW GLD 40 SSW MCK 35 SSW HLC 40 N DDC 15 NW LBL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE HUL 20 ENE BDL
35 SSW GON ...CONT... 15 ENE CRE SOP SHD 15 SSW PIT JKL 20 NNE 0A8
15 NW LUL 30 WNW POE 25 ENE TPL 20 SW JCT 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 60
WNW MRF 30 SW HOB 55 N HOB CVS 10 SE LVS 15 E FMN 10 NW 4BL 30 E 4HV
45 NE U28 CAG 30 SSE LAR 35 ESE CDR 10 SSW PIR 60 NE MBG 30 NNW JMS
35 E DVL 30 NE GFK 20 NNW BJI 35 SE BJI 25 NE AXN 30 ENE BKX 25 ENE
BUB BBW 35 SW EAR 55 SSW HSI 20 ENE SLN 15 SSW TOP 20 WSW JEF 10 SSW
ALN SBN MBS 10 E OSC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK...NW
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SW TX TO WRN TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN NC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN CO...WRN KS...

AMENDED FOR SERN CO/WRN KS

...AMD AREA...
SVR POTENTIAL INCREASING OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AMIDST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR.  REF SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 2203 FOR DETAILS.

...SYNOPSIS...
MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED GENERALLY BY
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM PACIFIC COST TO GREAT LAKES.  STRONGEST
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER CO AND NM -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ATOP CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN AND PERHAPS DEEPEN FRONTAL-WAVE
CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER FLOYD COUNTY TX...BASED ON W TX MESONET
OBS.

...SRN PLAINS TO TN VALLEY...
OVER CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY 
ON BOTH SIDES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER WRN PORTION OUTLOOK AREA. 
REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200 FOR NEAR TERM INFORMATION.  EXPECT
VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN AHEAD OF APCHG MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
THROUGHOUT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM VICINITY
SFC LOW EWD ACROSS RED RIVER REGION OF NW TX AND SRN OK.  MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING..WITH TRANSITION TO
PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL TONIGHT.  MOST
FAVORABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED.

SVR TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BETWEEN
NW TX AND SWRN AR.  FOR NOWCAST POTENTIAL OVER SERN OK/SWRN AR
REGION...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS THIS EVENING MOVING
GENERALLY EWD FROM ARKLATEX REGION ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY...DAMAGING
WIND BEING MAIN THREAT AFTER DARK.  MCS RELATED TO NW TX CONVECTION
ALSO MAY AFFECT THIS REGION LATE IN PERIOD WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
OCCASIONAL HAIL.

FARTHER SW ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX...ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...MORE SLY
SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAN OVER RED RIVER
REGION...BUT STILL ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING
HAIL/GUST POTENTIAL.

...ERN NC -- OPHELIA TORNADO THREAT...
SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT HEIGHTENED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL RISK AT LEAST INTO
EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS ACROSS SMALL SECTOR OF NERN AND EXTREME
E-CENTRAL NC HAS HEATED DIABATICALLY ENOUGH TO OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND GENERATE MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  DISCRETE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES ARE
OBSERVED ATTM WITH ONE SPIRAL CONVERGENCE BAND SW-W OF HSE..ACROSS
ALBEMARLE SOUND AND INLAND...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 200-300
J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM AGL LAYER.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY
WITH NWD EXTENT INTO VA AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.  GRADUAL
NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN NERN
SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE.

REF LATEST NHC BULLETINS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATE
TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION REGARDING
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.