[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 132007
SWODY1
SPC AC 132006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
ANJ MTW DNV 25 NNW CGI 40 NE HRO 30 N MKO 10 WNW FSI 50 WNW ABI 30
NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS AMA P28 10 WSW MHK 40 NNW LWD 15 NNE RST
55 NE EAU 65 ENE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ELP 30 S ROW
TCC 30 WSW CAO 15 SSE ALS 25 S CDC 30 NNE ELY 25 NNW OWY 65 SW 27U
50 ESE LVM 35 SSW BFF 55 ESE LIC 55 NNW GCK 15 ESE RWF 40 N CMX
...CONT... 40 SE OSC 30 WNW IND 20 N OWB 25 E DYR 25 NW GWO 25 NW
ESF 25 W 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CHS 20 W DAN
15 ESE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
UPPER MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY POSITIVELY
TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWWD ACROSS CA. 
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...BUT IN
GENERAL...BROAD PLUME OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM 4 CORNERS
TO GREAT LAKES.  SFC COLD FRONT -- MODULATED ACROSS IA BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS -- IS ANALYZED FROM LS SWWD ACROSS SERN MN TO FRONTAL-WAVE
LOW BETWEEN SLN-EMP.  FRONT THEN EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS ERN TX
PANHANDLE AND OVER E-CENTRAL NM.  EXPECT FRONT TO DECELERATE THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD ACROSS SERN NM AND SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX...AS
POSTFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS IN RESPONSE TO LEE-SIDE
CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NM.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS FRONT INVOF E-CENTRAL KS LOW...AND EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS
SERN KS THEN NEWD OVER WRN MO. DRYLINE -- FROM NEAR PVW SSWWD
ACROSS EXTREME SERN NM -- SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND MAY RETREAT WWD IN SOME AREAS.

...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
LARGE MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD FROM IA ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MN AND
WI.  FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN
PRE-STORM AIR MASS OVER MS VALLEY AND SRN WI WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. REF SPC WW 781...782...AND
RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILED NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH
REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/ERN MO...IN WEAKLY CAPPED AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER ENVIRONMENT FOR BOTH BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IN IL...BUT MAY STILL PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL
HAIL.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
FARTHER W ACROSS WRN MO...SERN KS AND NRN OK...SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
IS INCREASING INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND FRONTAL-WAVE LOW.  ALL
MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING SOME VERY LARGE/DAMAGING
HAIL.  AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH SFC TEMPS LOW-MID
90S AND DEW POINTS LOW 70S F...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES EXCEEDING
3000 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY WILL BE
LOCALLY MAXIMIZED FROM LOW EWD INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. REF SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187 AND WWS 783/784 FOR ADDITIONAL NOWCAST
INFO.  CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME MORE DENSE AND
INTENSE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY BACKBUILDING IN AT LEAST
BROKEN FORM SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS NRN/WRN OK.

WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP INVOF DECELERATING
COLD FRONT SWWD INTO SRN TX PANHANDLE...WITH TCU AND NASCENT CB
ALREADY APPARENT FROM LBB AREA NEWD TOWARD SHAMROCK TX.  DRYLINE SW
OF LBB SHOULD MARK SWRN BOUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. 
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THIS REGION INITIALLY IS WEAK BECAUSE OF ONLY
15-20 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS AND SSWLY-WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. 
HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS FLOW ALONG AND JUST S OF FRONT BACKS DUE TO ISALLOBARIC
FORCING FROM NM LEE CYCLOGENESIS.  DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY
OCCUR...SUPPORTED BY WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS 2000-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE.

...COASTAL NC...
AS TS OPHELIA APCHS COASTLINE AND FAVORABLY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS SLOWLY SPREAD NWD ACROSS NC COASTAL PLAIN AND
SHORELINES...DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW MINI SUPERCELLS AND MARGINAL
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG OUTER FRINGES OF
TS OPHELIA CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...DIABATICALLY AIDED SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY HAS PEAKED ACROSS INLAND AREAS...AND CONVERGENCE APPEARS
TOO WEAK OUTSIDE OF DENSE INNER BAND TO SUPPORT MUCH
DISCRETE/CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE.  THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN VERY
SMALL PROBABILITIES BUT DROP CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK FOR THIS REGION.

..EDWARDS.. 09/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.