[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140058
SWODY1
SPC AC 140057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DTW 30 ESE BWG
25 SW BNA 25 S MKL 30 W MEM PBF 40 SW MLU 30 W 7R4 60 SW 7R4 90 SE
GLS 110 SE PSX 15 ESE BRO 60 WNW MFE LRD 35 WNW DRT 30 SSW P07 90
SSW P07 60 SW MRF 40 W MRF 70 WNW MRF 35 SE CNM 50 SE CVS 40 W AMA
20 W CAO 55 S GUC 20 SE GJT 10 SW CAG 20 SSW LAR 50 WNW AKO 40 W GLD
35 SW HLC 20 SW CNK 40 N FNB 30 SW LSE 40 N CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ECG 60 E ECG 55
ESE HSE 125 SSE HSE 140 SE ILM 100 SSE ILM 240 ENE DAB 90 ENE DAB 15
ESE SSI 20 NNE AGS 25 NE CLT 45 NNW RWI 20 NE ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. A WELL-FOCUSED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY NWD THROUGH SWRN WI.
STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF STORMS
MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET PUNCHING NEWD JUST BEHIND THE LINE. THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LINE (40 TO 50
KT) WILL PROMOTE AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS THE NWRN PART
OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL...HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE ACROSS ERN
IA AND NRN IL. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS SWRN WI. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH ERN IA AND NW
MO. EVEN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
A FEW MORE STORMS THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

...OZARK PLATEAU/SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH SKIRTING THE REGION TO THE NORTH. A LARGE
STORM CLUSTER IS ONGOING ACROSS SE KS AND WRN MO JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SE KS. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN OK AND WEST TX.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG
RANGE. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 35 TO 45 KT OF
VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF OK AND KS WITH LESSENING SHEAR VALUES
ACROSS WEST TX. THIS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
CONTINUE A SUPERCELL THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. IN
ADDITION...A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDS NEWD
ACROSS WEST TX INTO WRN OK AND SERN KS. THIS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL
WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONGER MULTICELLS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE ACROSS SERN KS AND SWRN MO
WHERE THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION IS THE GREATEST.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...A
LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SRN MO AND ERN OK.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...CAROLINAS...
THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS HURRICANE OPHELIA TO MOVE
NNEWD AND SKIRT THE NC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE
CURRENTLY SPREADING SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS FAR SRN NC AND ERN SC. AS
THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...THE INNER
RAINBANDS WILL ALSO MOVE INLAND. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS
A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS WILL
LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW ELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
EXCEEDING 30 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 09/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.