[SWODY1] SWODY1

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ACUS01 KWNS 131554
SWODY1
SPC AC 131552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
ILM 10 W OAJ 25 NNE EWN 30 SE ECG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
APN 35 SSE CGX 25 SSW MTO 25 NNW CGI 40 NE HRO 30 N MKO 10 WNW FSI
50 WNW ABI 30 NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS 20 NNW AMA 35 ENE DDC 10
WSW MHK 40 NNW LWD 30 WNW LSE 30 WNW AUW 65 ENE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MTC 30 WNW LUK
50 ESE BWG 40 NNW MSL 25 NW GWO 45 ESE SHV 25 W 7R4 ...CONT... 25 SE
ELP 30 S ROW TCC 35 S RTN 55 NE 4SL 25 NE CDC 60 SE BAM 25 NNW OWY
65 SW 27U 50 ESE LVM CPR 35 WSW SNY 40 NE MCK 15 ESE RWF 40 N CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SSI 20 S GSO
15 ESE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER COASTAL NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADING
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES JUST AHEAD OF IT...WILL REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA TODAY.

...NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER NWRN MO WITH SEPARATE AREA OF
ELEVATED STORMS OVER NERN NEB AT 15Z.  THIS SECOND AREA APPEARS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD TOWARD IA THIS
MORNING.  MOST OF CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO WI WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
CLOUD FREE AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALLOWING MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THIS AIR
MASS...THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NWD OUT OF MO ATTM SHOULD INCREASE
AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED DURING THE LATE MORNING WITH
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT INTO IA AND FAR
SERN MN.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 35-45 KT
RANGE AND SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SUPERCELLS...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ENEWD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SHOULD SMALL BOW SEGMENTS BECOME ORIENTED
ORTHOGONAL TO MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT...WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD
INCREASE INTO THE MID EVENING. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL
ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS.

...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
ONGOING STORMS CONTINUE TO BACK-BUILD/REDEVELOP INTO ERN KS AND NWRN
MO THIS MORNING...LIKELY HAMPERING POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY.  HOWEVER
WITH STRONG HEATING WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE EAST
OF THESE STORMS...ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED AND
SPREAD EWD OVER MUCH OF MO THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS WSWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES.  CONTINUED HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL
LIKEWISE WEAKEN CAP AND SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN
TX...WRN/NRN OK AND CENTRAL KS. 

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
DAY WITH RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-45 KT OF 0-6 SHEAR BY 21-23Z. 
THEREFORE...STORMS MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR BEFORE EVOLVING INTO
CLUSTERS/LINES THROUGH THE EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE AS ONE
OR MORE MCSS AND CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT WITHIN DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
ALONG NOSE OF STRONG WLY SRN STREAM JET SPREADING EWD OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES. THOUGH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE
HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.

...COASTAL NC...
T.S. OPHELIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT NWWD THIS MORNING AND IS
FORECAST TO TURN MORE NLY THROUGH LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DEVELOPS EWD.  THIS WILL PLACE
SRN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE NC COAST WITHIN A MORE FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN ASSOCIATED RAIN BANDS. 
THEREFORE...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER THIS AREA LATER TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 09/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.