[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131249
SWODY1
SPC AC 131247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
APN 20 SSW SBN 15 ESE MTO 25 NNW CGI 40 NE HRO 30 N MKO 10 WNW FSI
50 WNW ABI 30 NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS 20 NNW AMA 35 ENE DDC 10
WSW MHK 40 NNW LWD 15 NNE ALO 15 ESE CWA 65 ENE CMX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
CRE 35 SE FAY 25 NNE EWN 30 SE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 40 NNE CNM
20 NNW TCC 15 W RTN 25 NE CDC 60 SE BAM 45 NNW OWY 50 S 27U 35 SSE
LVM CPR 45 WNW LBF 15 WNW BUB 25 NNW RWF 45 E DLH ...CONT... 40 WNW
CLE 15 WNW BWG 15 WSW PBF 45 ESE SHV 15 SSE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SSI 15 NNE CAE
20 ESE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS NE
INTO THE MID MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CAROLINA CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD.
STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WHICH CROSSED THE NRN PLNS YESTERDAY WILL
PHASE WITH A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS MANITOBA TO YIELD A
BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  DEPARTURE
OF NRN PLNS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE SRN BRANCH JET TO
STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD E INTO THE SRN PLNS.

FARTHER E...SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT PROGRESSION OF CNTRL NOAM
TROUGH IS FINALLY SHUNTING UPR OH VLY RIDGE E INTO THE N ATLANTIC.
THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE T.S. "OPHELIA" TO TURN MORE N TOWARD THE NC
CST.

AT THE SURFACE...NRN PART OF FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLNS TROUGH
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY
TODAY...WHILE SRN PART SETTLES SSE INTO THE SRN PLNS.

...CNTRL PLNS TO MID MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SRN BRANCH JET BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED ATTM OVER THE WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS.  DEEP
WSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS
AND THE MS VLY THIS PERIOD AS THE SRN JET CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ENEWD. AT THE SAME TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD
CONTINUE FROM TX/OK NEWD INTO ERN KS/MO/SE IA AND IL...WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.  AS A RESULT...EXPECT
AFTERNOON MUCAPE TO RANGE FROM NEAR 2000 J/KG IN SE IA/NRN IL TO
NEAR 3000 J/KG IN SE KS AND MO.

BAND OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS NOW PRESENT IN ERN KS/NW MO AND SW
IA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE INFLUX IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM JET.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER TODAY
WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING/CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW.  WITH DEEP
WSWLY SHEAR OF 40 KTS ORIENTED AT A CONSIDERABLE ANGLE TO THE BAND
OF CONVECTION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ACTIVITY TO
FORWARD-PROPAGATE ENE ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF ERN KS/MO AND ERN
IA...WHERE EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL.  OTHER STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT E OF THE EXISTING ACTIVITY. THESE COULD
POSE A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT E/NE INTO IL/SRN WI AND WRN/NRN LWR MI.


...SRN PLNS...
SWRN END OF KS CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD TEND TO BACK-BUILD SWD AND WWD
INTO RATHER RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS CAP WEAKENS FROM NE TO SW ACROSS REGION.  COUPLED WITH
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET...SETUP EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO IN SRN KS/NRN OK.  THESE STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE
INTO A LARGE MCS THAT MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY S/SE ACROSS OK/AR.

...CSTL CAROLINAS...
T.S. "OPHELIA" EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW TODAY...BEFORE TURNING
MORE N BY TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MOVES E INTO SRN NEW ENG. 
WIND FIELD SUPPORTIVE OF MINI SUPERCELLS IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
AFFECT CSTL NC FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO THE SC BORDER ...PER AREA VWPS
SHOWING ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH SFC TO  1 KM SHEAR AOA 30
KTS.  WIND PROFILES SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS
AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE CST LATER  TODAY/TONIGHT.  CESSATION
OF LOW LEVEL COOL/DRY ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD ERN NC...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW 70S.

WARM CORE NATURE OF OPHELIA LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEGREE OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...EVEN ON FRINGE OF STORM CIRCULATION AND
DURING MAX HEATING.  BUT AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN MORE NWD LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OF A MORE TROPICAL ORIGIN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD WWD ON N SIDE OF CIRCULATION...POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MINI SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES
IN OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
FAR ERN/SRN NC AND PERHAPS FAR NE SC.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 09/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.