[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130601
SWODY1
SPC AC 130559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
APN 50 N LAF 30 NE SLO 55 WNW CGI 40 SE SGF 10 NE TUL 10 WNW FSI 50
WNW ABI 30 NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS 20 NNW AMA 10 SSW DDC CNK 40 W
DSM 15 NW ALO 20 WNW CWA 65 ENE CMX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
CRE 30 NW ILM 25 NNE EWN 30 SE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 30 WSW CVS
TAD 55 SSE U24 25 SSW SUN 55 ESE LVM 20 ENE AIA 15 NW BBW 25 W ATY
15 NW BRD 70 E ELO ...CONT... 40 WNW CLE 15 WNW BWG 45 NE TXK 40 NNE
GGG 10 WSW GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SAV 15 S SOP 25
NE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...LOWER OH VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...OZARK PLATEAU...CNTRL
PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...

...MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
TODAY SPREADING WIDESPREAD ASCENT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER
OH VALLEY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND NEAR A
COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN NEB...NWRN IA AND NRN WI. STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SFC HEATING
DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH
ASCENT FROM THE UPPER-TROUGH AND LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS.

A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHERE
INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED AND STORM COVERAGE REMAINS
SCATTERED. HOWEVER...THE STRONG LIFT PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SHOULD RESULT IN EARLY INITIATION WITH STORMS LINING UP ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WOULD FAVOR A WIDESPREAD MULTICELL THREAT WITH BOW
ECHOES AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE DOMINATE MODE
OF SEVERE. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION...WIND DAMAGE
SHOULD BE ENHANCED WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS ESPECIALLY
IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 7.0 C/KM SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL WILL BE ISOLATED. THE
BEST LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY BE NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN ERN KS WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIT
STEEPER.

THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEVELOPING A COMPLEX
LINEAR MCS STRUCTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SEVERE THREAT
MAY CONTINUE AS THE MCS MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND
OZARK REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SRN PLAINS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTS THE REGION TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...A
LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS OK AND NCNTRL TX COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD CREATE LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION WILL
BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH
WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE LOCATED IN WEST TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LARGE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS (20 TO 30 DEGREES) SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS MOVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA TO
BECOME A HURRICANE AND MOVE SLOWLY NWD TO NEAR THE NC COAST BY
TONIGHT. RAINBANDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF OPHELIA TO ABOVE 1500
J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM
SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 KT SUGGESTING THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST TONIGHT WITH
ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE INLAND EMBEDDED IN THE INNER RAINBANDS.

..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 09/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.