[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130059
SWODY1
SPC AC 130057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
OLU 35 ENE BUB 40 WNW YKN 25 WNW BKX 50 SSW AXN 40 SSE AXN 40 SSW
STC 25 W MKT 15 SSE OTG 20 S SUX 20 NE OLU 40 W OLU.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
ANJ 50 S ESC 40 WNW OSH 30 NNW ALO 30 NNW DSM 20 NNE FNB 35 ESE SLN
20 WSW ICT 15 S P28 40 SE DDC 35 NNE DDC 30 SE MCK 30 WNW LBF 10 N
AIA 35 W CDR 45 WSW RAP 25 NNW RAP 25 SSW MBG 50 WNW AXN 30 W DLH 55
NW IWD 40 NNW CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N APN 25 WSW HTL
20 NW MKG 40 WSW RFD 30 SSE OTM 45 ENE CNU 25 S MLC 20 N TYR 20 ESE
BPT ...CONT... 40 ESE DUG 45 S GNT 10 W 4SL 60 WSW RTN 40 E RTN 45
WNW EHA 40 SW GLD 15 WNW AKO 35 E RKS 50 ENE MLD 30 N IDA 15 N WEY
25 NNE MLS 55 WSW DVL 30 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SAV 30 NNW CHS
10 SE FLO 15 SE FAY 25 N OAJ 15 N HSE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER-TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
ONGOING ALONG AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
FROM ECNTRL NEB EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SERN SD INTO CNTRL MN. OTHER
STORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS WRN NEB AND
WRN SD.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXTENDING WWD INTO CNTRL NEB. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z OMAHA SOUNDING
SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUSTAIN THE
EXISTING VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING SUGGESTING
THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
LARGE NUMBER OF STORMS AND LOCAL VARIATION IN INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN MANY MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. A TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEWD PARALLELING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LOCATED ACROSS ERN NEB...SERN SD AND
SRN MN. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH
SUPERCELLS AND STRONG MULTICELL STORMS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY
BE LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS.

MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE WITH DEVELOPING A LARGE MCS ACROSS
ERN SD...NW IA AND SRN MN...MOVING IT ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL MN INTO WI
AND UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS PROJECTED MCS PATH SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS
WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM SERN CO
TO ERN NM. THIS SHORTWAVE IS INCREASING ASCENT ACROSS A BROAD AREA
FROM WEST TX TO CNTRL KS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND
EAST OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS WCNTRL KS INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE. PROFILERS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 30 TO 35 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS
EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS EVENING BEFORE
INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER MOVES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA SLOWLY 
NWWD TOWARD THE SRN NC COAST TONIGHT KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE. THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF OPHELIA ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY INLAND
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF
THE CAROLINAS SHOW STRONG ELY FLOW WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
EXCEEDING 30 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE INLAND.
HOWEVER...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT MARGINAL TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 09/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.