[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 122015
SWODY1
SPC AC 122014

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
ANW 30 NNE ANW HON 35 W RWF FRM SUX BBW 40 S ANW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW
ANJ 35 W GRB 40 SE OMA 15 SW HSI 20 NNE IML 55 N CYS DGW 40 W GCC 15
N 81V MBG AXN 25 NNE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN 35 NW MKG 30 WNW
MLI 10 SSE IRK 35 SW SZL 10 SE BVO 45 NW MLC 35 E DAL 20 SSW BPT
...CONT... 40 SW DMN 35 NW 4SL 15 SE ALS 15 NNE CAO 10 E LAA 25 ESE
LIC 35 NW LIC 35 SSW 4FC 20 N GJT 10 SW PUC 30 E DPG 35 SSW PIH 20
NNE MQM 40 S BZN MLS 20 E P24 70 NE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SAV FLO 15 NNE
EWN HSE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN
NEB...NWRN IA...SWRN MN...SERN SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ERN WY TO
SRN/WRN LS SHORELINE...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND WRN
CONUS. LEAD SHORTWAVE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
ACROSS SWRN WY -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS BLACK HILLS REGION
INTO DAKOTAS THROUGH 13/12Z.  SFC FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE -- ANALYZED
AT 18Z SE PIR...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO SWRN MN
TONIGHT...WITH WEAK/SECONDARY LOW REMAINING INVOF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION INVOF WRN PORTION KS/NEB BORDER.

...N-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN
SD...AHEAD OF SFC CYCLONE...IN AREA OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED PRESSURE
FALLS AND BACKED SFC WINDS.  REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176 FOR
LATEST DETAILS.  WIDELY SCATTERED/HIGH-BASED TSTMS NOW EVIDENT IN
LIGHTNING DATA ACROSS CENTRAL WY MAY MOVE NEWD ACROSS ADJACENT
BASINS AND HIGH PLAINS OVER NXT SEVERAL HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ATOP RELATIVELY DRY AND DEEPLY-MIXED
POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER.

STRONG CAP STILL EVIDENT IN 18Z LBF RAOB SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT.  PRIND GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE AFTER
DARK IN AND NEAR CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...WHERE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF WIND/HAIL EVENTS IS EXPECTED. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL BE LIMITED IN BETWEEN PRINCIPAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...HOWEVER
FRONTAL LIFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS
MID/UPPER 60S F...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE CAP BEFORE DARK OVER
PORTIONS SRN SD AND NEB.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROLIFERATE
AFTER DARK WITH MCS LIKELY EVOLVING...SUPPORTED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...35-45 KT SSWLY LLJ AND MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG
INVOF MO VALLEY.

....COASTAL CAROLINAS...
TS OPHELIA IS FCST BY NHC TO TURN NWD THIS PERIOD AND...GIVEN
PRESENT TRACK...WILL PLACE MORE OF COASTAL NC IN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR REGIME ALONG OUTER NRN/NERN PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION.  VWP FRM
ILM ALREADY INDICATES SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT MINI
SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER LIMITED LAND AREA BENEATH FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVELOPE...LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY...AND GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE EACH WILL BE LIMITING FACTOR FOR TORNADO
POTENTIAL INLAND.  REF LATEST CHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER
WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR GUIDANCE RELATED TO TRACK/INTENSITY OF TS OPHELIA
AS WELL AS ALL TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.