[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120556
SWODY1
SPC AC 120555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW
ANJ 35 E ALO 45 SE OMA 35 ESE GRI 35 SSE MHN 15 SSW DGW 25 NW CPR 55
ESE WRL 45 WSW GCC 55 SSE Y22 45 ESE JMS 40 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ANJ 40 NW TVC
25 ENE MTW 15 NE MSN 30 WNW MLI 10 SSE IRK 35 SW SZL 10 SE BVO 45 NW
MLC 35 E DAL 35 WNW LFK 20 SSW BPT ...CONT... 80 SE ELP 45 NNW ONM
15 S 4SL 25 WSW EHA 20 ESE GLD 45 ENE AKO 30 W CAG 25 WNW VEL 50 SSE
SLC 15 SSE DPG 25 W DPG 10 NNE ENV 25 SSE TWF 30 ENE SUN 35 W MQM 25
ENE WEY 45 NNE COD 20 NNW SHR 30 ESE 4BQ 10 W Y22 35 W JMS 45 SE DVL
15 NNE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SRQ 30 ESE VLD
50 SSW AGS 20 N CAE 20 SW SOP 45 E RWI 30 N HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND HIGH PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL PICK UP SPEED TODAY MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS STORMS WILL
REDUCE INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AND MAY BE PROBLEMATIC
FOR SEVERE IN SOME AREAS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ACROSS ERN NEB AND FAR SERN SD WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S F AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MAY ALLOW
FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL
WIND PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY
ENHANCED WITH THE BEST SUPERCELL THREAT OVER SERN SD...ERN NEB AND
NW IA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE LARGE NUMBER OF STORMS AND VARYING INSTABILITY
SPATIALLY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MANY MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SUPERCELLS INITIATE
ESPECIALLY OVER SERN SD AND ERN NEB WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE GREATEST. A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES
CREATING CURVED HODOGRAPHS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED
WITH SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE CLOSELY PARALLEL TO A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM NRN NEB ACROSS FAR SERN SD INTO CNTRL MN.
SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE
THREAT MARGINAL.

...HIGH PLAINS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE
EWD QUICKLY INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY...SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ACCENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS SFC HEATING OCCURS...STORMS SHOULD
INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND SWRN SD
WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NRN NEB. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS SRN SD AND NRN NEB WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT AS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX PUNCHES NEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LIFT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY DUE TO 
THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS.
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING
STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS INSTABILITY DROPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.