[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120049
SWODY1
SPC AC 120048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
ELO 50 E BRD 30 N YKN 45 SSW MHE 15 SSW 9V9 45 NE PIR 20 SSE DVL 70
NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 20 E PDT 45 SSW
3DU 45 NW COD 15 E WRL 50 SW GCC 30 ESE 81V 30 SE REJ Y22 55 NNE
MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 15 N PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE APN 25 SW PLN
40 NNW GRB 25 NW LSE 35 N OMA 20 SW BIE 25 SSW MHK 10 N BVO 25 WNW
MKO 10 WSW DUA 25 E SEP 25 SSW TPL 45 ESE AUS 30 WSW GLS ...CONT...
40 ESE DUG 40 W SVC 20 E GNT 45 ESE DRO 45 NNE DRO 40 SE CNY 30 SW
P38 55 N NID 25 NE FAT 20 NNE SAC 30 NE UKI 55 NW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W BHB 35 NNW BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...ND/SD/MN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-TROUGH
OVER THE NWRN STATES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH BUT ASCENT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY HELP ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION IN
PLACE. THE CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION WILL INCREASE ALONG A COLD
FRONT IN THE ERN DAKOTAS AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND A LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THE NAM/NAMKF AND
GFS MODELS ALL INITIATE STORMS IN THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH MCS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVERNIGHT SPREADING EWD INTO WRN MN.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN
PLACE ACROSS SE ND/ERN SD AND ACROSS THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF MN. IN
ADDITION...THE ABERDEEN 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THE FASTER AND MORE
INTENSE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN AND NRN MN AFTER
MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE
AND SW KS. THE STORM COMPLEX IS OCCURRING IN A REGION OF STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NNEWD ACROSS
WEST TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 20 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST PROFILES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. ANY MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INSTABILITY
BEGINS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 09/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.