[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121303
SWODY1
SPC AC 121301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
ANW 30 NNE ANW 20 WNW MHE 35 W RWF 30 SSE FRM 15 SE OMA 20 SE GRI 40
S ANW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW
ANJ 35 E ALO 30 NNE FNB 35 SSE HSI 35 SSE MHN 15 SSW DGW 25 NW CPR
55 ESE WRL 45 WSW GCC 55 SSE Y22 45 ESE JMS 40 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN 10 NW HTL 35 NW
MKG 15 NW MKE 30 WNW MLI 10 SSE IRK 35 SW SZL 10 SE BVO 45 NW MLC 35
E DAL 35 WNW LFK 20 SSW BPT ...CONT... 80 SE ELP 45 NNW ONM 15 S 4SL
25 WSW EHA 20 ESE GLD 45 ENE AKO 30 W CAG 25 WNW VEL 50 SSE SLC 15
SSE DPG 25 W DPG 10 NNE ENV 25 SSE TWF 30 ENE SUN 35 W MQM 40 S BZN
30 WSW BIL 15 E MLS 25 SSW P24 55 ESE MOT 70 NE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SRQ 30 ESE VLD
50 SSW AGS 20 N CAE 20 SW SOP 45 E RWI 30 N HSE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN AND ERN
NEB...SE SD...SW MN AND NW IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN
PLNS AND UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY ATTM OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
U.S.  SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW NRN GRT BASIN UPR LOW BEGINNING TO
ACCELERATE ENEWD.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REACH ERN WY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING NE INTO ERN ND
/NW MN EARLY TUESDAY.  FARTHER S...SATELLITE AND PROFILER DATA
DEPICT SEPARATE SRN BRANCH JET EXTENDING FROM SRN CA TO NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS.  LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND OF ENHANCED FLOW SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. 

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ABOVE SYSTEMS...UPR DISTURBANCE NOW OVER NEB/SD
SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE ACROSS MN LATER TODAY...ENHANCING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THAT REGION.  IN THE EAST...WITH
PATTERN REMAINING FAIRLY STAGNANT...ONLY A SLOW OVERALL NW DRIFT
EXPECTED WITH HRCN OPHELIA.

AT LWR LEVELS...FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLED OVER THE N CNTRL STATES/WRN
PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
 WAVE ON THE BOUNDARY...NOW OVER WRN NEB...SHOULD LIFT NE ALONG
FRONT THIS EVENING.  

...NRN PTNS OF THE CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY... 
UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER NEB/SD...AND LEADING EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
 RETURN WHICH OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLNS LATE YESTERDAY...EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS ERN SD/MN..NRN
WI AND WRN UPR MI TODAY.  WHILE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ELEVATED...CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED
SUSTAINED STORMS/SHORT LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH
WIND.

IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE STORMS...STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
INVOF FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION OVER SE SD/NRN AND ERN NEB AND
PERHAPS SW MN/NW IA.  AT THE SAME TIME...MID AND UPR LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO VEER AND INCREASE AS NOSE OF SRN STREAM JET BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD REGION.  WITH 500 MB SPEEDS EXCEEDING 30 KTS...DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40 KTS. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S/...TIMING APPEARS
FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN/ERN NEB AND SE SD. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES AS REGION SHOULD
REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM MORE LINEAR-FORCED ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED
WITH IMPULSE IN WY.  THE STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO A CLUSTER AND
CONTINUE E/NE INTO PARTS OF IA/MN THIS EVENING.

OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER WRN NEB AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
OVERSPREADS REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE WITH HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND
SWRN SD.  STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG FRONT IN NW NEB.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED /MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J PER KG/ AND
STRONG DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES.  ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FASTER MOVING STORMS.  THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS GENERALLY EWD LATER THIS EVENING.

...SRN HI PLNS...
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING 
STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND WILL EXIST IN DEEPLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT INVOF SRN EXTENTION OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS SW NEB AND WRN
KS.  STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML/SRN STREAM JET LIKELY WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH ACTIVITY. 

...CSTL NC...
THE OUTER FRINGE OF HRCN OPHELIA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CAPE
FEAR/CAPE LOOKOUT AREAS TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY...GIVEN CURRENT TPC
FORECAST.  LOW LEVEL COOL/DRY ADVECTION THAT WAS PRESENT YESTERDAY N
AND W OF CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED.  THUS...REGION WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TSTMS
GRAZING THE REGION ON THE FAR N/NW EDGE OF THE STORM.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.