[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111952
SWODY1
SPC AC 111951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
INL 25 ENE RWF 25 S FSD 55 E ANW 35 SE PHP 30 ENE Y22 70 NNW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 25 SE 4SL 30
NNW EHA 25 E GLD 30 NE IML 40 ESE AIA 20 WSW CDR 30 W RAP 30 SSW DIK
50 N MOT ...CONT... 150 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 20 SSW MCW 15
WNW LNK 15 E CNK 45 NNE PNC 45 SSW TUL 30 WSW MLC 40 NNE ACT 45 SW
LFK 25 SSW BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDT 10 W HLN 40
ENE COD 35 NNE RKS 50 S SLC 30 SW P38 60 N NID 30 NNE FAT 45 NE SCK
45 NNW SAC 60 NW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SRQ VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 55 W 3B1.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN DAKS INTO
NRN/WRN MN...

...CNTRL/ERN DAKS INTO WRN/NRN MN...
MESOANALYSIS SERIES SHOWS THAT THE FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS HAS
RETREATED THIS AFTN AND EXTENDS FROM ERN/CNTRL ND SWWD TO THE BLACK
HILLS VCNTY.  GPS/SATL DERIVED PWATS HAVE SHOWN A RAPID ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION AND MAY LARGELY EXPLAIN THE EXISTENCE
OF ELEVATED TSTMS LIFTING NWD INTO NWRN MN AT MID-AFTN. 
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS CNTRL ND
ATOP THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WEST OF THE FRONT.  THESE STORMS
MAY BE AIDED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SWRN SASK.  

ADVECTION OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE NRN PLAINS.  BUT...RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT INHIBITION REMAINS STRONG...EVEN WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR 90F.  

IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE SASK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS
MOVE/SPREAD EWD...GRAZING NRN EDGES OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP/EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ND AND PARTS
OF NERN SD THIS EVENING.  ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO PARTS
OF NRN/WRN MN OVERNIGHT.  AVAILABILITY OF 40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR...A
MEAN WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A BROAD BAND OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WRN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT MCS IS APT TO BACKBUILD SWWD
INTO THE STRONGER LLJ/INSTABILITY AXES LATER TONIGHT ACROSS ERN SD
AND PARTS OF WRN MN.  THIS WILL PROBABLY SUSTAIN THREATS FOR HAIL/
WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO THE NIGHT.  NRN PARTS OF THE MCS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BEYOND THE INSTABILITY/LLJ.  

...SRN FL...
WCOAST SEABREEZE SHOULD COLLIDE WITH THE ECOAST SEABREEZE LATER THIS
AFTN SOMEWHERE OVER S FL.  NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARIES AND COULD BECOME STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE.  AN ISOLD
DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD RESULT.

..RACY.. 09/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.