[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111628
SWODY1
SPC AC 111626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
INL 25 ENE RWF 25 S FSD 55 E ANW 35 SE PHP 35 WSW MBG 55 NNW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 65 SW SOW
25 NW CEZ 25 E GUC 25 SSW SNY 40 ESE AIA 20 WSW CDR 30 W RAP 25 WSW
Y22 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 150 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 20 SSW MCW
15 WNW LNK 15 E CNK 15 SSW ICT 15 NE OKC 20 SSW ADM 30 ESE DAL 45 SW
LFK 25 SSW BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDT 10 W HLN 40
ENE COD 35 NNE RKS 50 S SLC 30 SW P38 60 N NID 30 NNE FAT 45 NE SCK
45 NNW SAC 60 NW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE JAX 40 NE AYS
50 WNW CHS 35 WNW ILM HSE ...CONT... 35 SSE SRQ VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 55 W 3B1.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
LATE DAY/OVERNIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN.  AIR MASS REMAINS DRY THIS MORNING WITH VERY
SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER EVIDENT ON ABR AND BIS SOUNDINGS AT
12Z.  HOWEVER...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT NNEWD TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...LARGER SCALE
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE U.S. WILL SUSTAIN
SSWLY LLJ OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW RICHER H85
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEY
TODAY...BOOSTING SURFACE DEW POINTS AS MOISTURE MIXES THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...
CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD INCREASE AS FRONT BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED ACROSS ND LATE IN THE DAY.  INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE SURFACE BASED INTO ERN ND/NERN SD BETWEEN 21-00Z...WITH STORMS
INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AFTER DARK OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND SPREADING INTO WRN MN.  EARLY ON...STRONGER STORMS WILL
HAVE A DUEL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES.  WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WANE THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS.

...SRN FL...
MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER FL TODAY. THOUGH WINDS REMAIN VERY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE
TROPOSPHERE...UNIFORM WLY COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO SHIFT WELL INLAND.  RESULTANT SEA BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTIONS WITHIN A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD THUS
SUPPORT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BRIEFLY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN
PULSE-TYPE AND LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 09/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.