[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111248
SWODY1
SPC AC 111246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
INL 25 ENE RWF 25 S FSD 55 E ANW 35 SE PHP 35 WSW MBG 55 NNW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 20 SW SOW
25 NW CEZ 25 E GUC 25 SSW SNY 40 ESE AIA 20 WSW CDR 30 W RAP 10 WSW
Y22 45 S P24 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 145 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT
15 W LSE 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 15 E CNK 15 SSW ICT 15 NE OKC 20 SSW
ADM 30 ESE DAL 45 SW LFK 25 SW BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 55 W 3B1.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDT 10 W HLN 40
ENE COD 35 NNE RKS 50 S SLC 30 SW P38 60 N NID 30 NNE FAT 45 NE SCK
45 NNW SAC 60 NW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW GNV 30 NW SSI
40 NNE SAV 35 WNW ILM HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR
MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW DEEP WRN U.S. TROUGH BEGINNING TO ELONGATE AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/SPEED MAX NOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN LIFTS NE
ACROSS ID/WY.  CONTINUED NE MOTION OF THE IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN
WEAKENING OF EXISTING MAIN UPR CIRCULATION CENTER OVER ORE/NRN
CA...AND STRENGTHENING OF CENTER NOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/SRN
MANITOBA.  FARTHER E...AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
CLOSED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE LWR OH/TN VLYS...AND KEEP HRCN
OPHELIA MORE OR LESS STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD OFF THE CAROLINA
CST.

AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE WHICH
EJECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLNS ON SATURDAY NOW EXTENDS FROM WRN ONTARIO
SW ACROSS ERN ND INTO CNTRL SD/WRN NEB.  THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...AND MAY EVEN SLIGHTLY RETROGRESS...BEFORE 
RESUMING ITS E/SE MOTION TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS ID/WY IMPULSE
CONTINUES NE INTO CANADA.

...CNTRL/ERN DAKS AND MN...
MODERATE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY W OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT CLOUD AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
/ERN NEB NNE INTO MN.  MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT 
WILL ALSO CONTINUE AHEAD OF STALLING FRONT...WITH AVERAGE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.  COUPLED WITH ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER /EML/ ALREADY IN PLACE...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT
MLCAPE WILL BE AOA 1500 J/KG OVER THE ERN DAKS BY AFTERNOON.

CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML LIKELY WILL PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY.  BY EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER...GLANCING INFLUENCE OF ID/WY
IMPULSE WILL INDUCE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NRN PLNS. 
COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN ND BY NIGHTFALL.

WITH DEEP SSWLY SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KTS...ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A SUSTAINED BAND...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR BOTH HAIL AND HIGH WIND.  LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WIND FIELD...INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SRN PLNS...AND LINEAR FORCING OF FRONT
ALL SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO BACK-BUILDING
QUASI-LINEAR MCS TONIGHT.  THIS MAY EXTEND A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL SSW INTO PARTS OF SD AND SW MN EARLY MONDAY.

...NC/SC CST...
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE TPC...AND SATELLITE AND SURFACE TRENDS
/I.E. LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION NOW IN PROGRESS OFF THE MD/VA/NRN NC
CST/...SUGGEST THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN OPHELIA
LIKELY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.