[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101957
SWODY1
SPC AC 101955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 40 SE PHX
30 S INW 15 SSW GUP 25 ENE ONM 25 W 4CR 60 WSW TCC 35 SW DHT 30 NNW
GLD 30 W LBF 35 NNE LBF BBW 20 NNW HLC 25 N LBL 60 E AMA 20 S BGS 40
W SJT 35 SSE SJT 50 NE JCT 45 SE BWD 25 WNW ACT 20 NNW ACT 45 NE ACT
25 SW TYR 20 NE LFK 15 SE BPT ...CONT... 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW ISN 20 SSE SDY
45 NNE SHR 40 WSW WRL 45 NNE EVW 45 WSW DPG 40 ESE U31 10 NNW TVL 40
SSW RBL 35 SSW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 40 SE GFK 45 WNW
FAR 40 NW JMS 60 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GRTLKS REGION...
OVERNIGHT MCS THAT TRACKED SSEWD ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND INTO NWRN
LWR MI HAS DIMINISHED TO A FEW SHOWERS.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS WRN LWR/LAKE MI DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTN/EVENING.  STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES OVER WI/LK MI AREA
WHERE TRAILING PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW EXISTS.  BUT...WARM AIR ALOFT
WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT NEWD TOWARD THE GRTLKS REGION AND SHOULD BE
DETRIMENTAL TO SURFACE-BASED INITIATION ACROSS ERN WI. THUS...
SEVERE/GENERAL TSTM PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED.

...NRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FROM ERN MT
INTO CNTRL ND. AN ELEVATED BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
TRANSLATE NEWD IN THE WARM CONVEYER AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE INTO ADJACENT CANADA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A PIECE
OF THE LEE-TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO WRN ND/CNTRL SD IN WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM.  IT IS UNLIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL FORM VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY
GIVEN SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
CAP OVER THE REGION.

UPSTREAM...A BAND OF TSTMS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT VCNTY THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ACROSS NERN MT WHERE A PEAK WIND GUST TO 47 KTS WAS OBSERVED
AT KGGW AT 1832Z.  THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
TOWARD THE SASK-MT BORDER.

...S TX...
TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST
CONVEYOR FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE UPPER TX COASTAL AREA AND
BENEATH THE VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATING NWD ALONG THE COAHUILA/TX
BORDER.  THOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY TSTM...IT APPEARS THAT
SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SUB-5 PERCENT.

..RACY.. 09/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.