[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101614
SWODY1
SPC AC 101612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 40 SE PHX
30 S INW 50 W 4SL 25 NNE 4SL 50 NNW LVS 45 SE RTN 35 NW AMA 55 NNW
CDS 10 S CDS 20 W ABI 35 SSW ABI 25 SW BWD 45 S SEP 15 NW ACT 50 SW
TYR LFK BPT ...CONT... 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 E APN 30 S HTL 40
SSW MBL 10 NNE MKE 25 NNW CGX 30 N MMO 40 WSW RFD 20 ENE LNR 25 ENE
AUW 25 NE RHI 15 NNE IWD 10 W DLH 20 SW BRD 25 NNE HON 20 NW PIR 35
SE Y22 30 NE REJ 40 WSW REJ 35 ESE BPI 40 W DPG 30 ESE U31 25 SSE
RNO 50 ENE UKI 50 S EKA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION SETTLES SLOWLY SWD AND 
DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD INTO SRN CANADA BY THIS EVENING. 
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...REACHING A NWRN MN/CENTRAL SD/WRN NEB
LINE BY 11/12Z.

...NRN PLAINS...
A BAND OF WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL ND
ATTM...IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT BIS AND ABR INDICATE PRESENCE OF PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER 
NEAR 850 MB.  THIS CAP MAY STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING HIGH PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 
THUS...LIKELIHOOD OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE LOW.  HOWEVER...DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION.

...NRN LAKE MI/NRN LOWER MI AREA...
AN ELEVATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MOVING SEWD FROM UPPER
MI INTO NRN LAKE MI ON THE ERN EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION
CENTERED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER.  STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOWN ON GRB SOUNDING ABOVE 700 MB ARE ENHANCING UPWARD PARCEL
ACCELERATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED HAIL WITH STRONGER
CELLS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REESTABLISHES FARTHER WEST OVER MN
AND WARM ADVECTION FORCING WEAKENS OVER THE LAKE MI/LOWER MI REGION.


...SRN TX...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING
NNEWD FROM THE BIG BEND REGION TOWARD PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX. 
AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F...AND CU FIELD IS INCREASING THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE
WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS TO OCCUR.

..WEISS/JEWELL.. 09/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.