[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101252
SWODY1
SPC AC 101250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 ESE OSC 30 NW MBS
15 NNW MBL 20 S MQT DLH 30 NE RWF 45 N BUB 30 S VTN 25 SSW PHP 40
ESE 81V 50 NW CPR 45 SSW BPI 45 WSW DPG 30 ESE U31 25 SSE RNO 40 S
RBL 45 SSW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SRQ 15 NNW VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 25 NNW PHX
35 E GCN 15 SSW U17 40 NNE 4BL 20 WSW GUC 45 WSW PUB 20 NNE RTN 45
ESE CVS LBB ABI 45 E CLL 15 ESE BPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEP UPR LOW NOW
OVER WA SETTLES S INTO ORE...AND CLOSED ANTICYCLONE EVOLVES OVER THE
LWR TN VLY.  SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS OVER
UT/AZ YESTERDAY IS NOW ENTERING WRN CO/SW WY.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ACCELERATE NNE INTO MANITOBA BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND BECOME ABSORBED
IN FAST SW FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH.

...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY TO UPR GRT LKS...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CO/WY IMPULSE CONTINUING TO DAMPEN AS IT LIFTS
NNE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE WRN DAKOTAS
 BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO SRN MANITOBA BY 00Z
SUNDAY.  CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SERVE
TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN EXISTING CAP AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVR THE NRN PLNS.

WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM CO/WY DISTURBANCE IS SUPPORTING SWATH
OF HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER WRN SD ATTM.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE NNE INTO ND BY MIDDAY...AND INTO NW MN THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN RELATIVELY DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
STRENGTHENING/UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN FLOW...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED HIGH WIND GUSTS.

OTHER WARM ADVECTION STORMS ARE OVER THE UPR GRT LKS THIS MORNING. 
THIS ACTIVITY ESSENTIALLY MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF AMPLIFYING TN
VLY RIDGE...AND AFTER MIDDAY LIKELY WILL HAVE MOVED INTO ONTARIO.
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY EXIST FOR SMALL HAIL IN SOME
STORMS.

LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
EXITING UPR IMPULSE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARCELS WILL
NEED MINIMAL FORCING TO REACH THE LFC. CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL/
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. BUT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NWD SHIFT OF
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING
DEEP CONVECTION.  OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED
IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NRN RCKYS...AND FROM SRN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...NEWD INTO MANITOBA.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.