[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100550
SWODY1
SPC AC 100548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 25 NNW PHX
35 E GCN 15 SSW U17 40 NNE 4BL 20 WSW GUC 45 WSW PUB 20 NNE RTN 45
ESE CVS LBB ABI 45 E CLL 15 ESE BPT ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 20 ESE
JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 ESE OSC 15 N PLN
20 NNE MQT 70 N IWD DLH 30 NE RWF 45 N BUB 30 S VTN 25 SSW PHP 40
ESE 81V 50 NW CPR 45 SSW BPI 45 ENE ENV 35 N U31 10 WNW RNO 40 S RBL
45 SSW EKA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IN EJECTING DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES...NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD NWD QUICKLY WITH GREATEST
REGION OF ASCENT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURES
APPEAR TO BE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FOCUSED MAINLY
ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO...AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND
THE SUPPRESSIVE CAP NOTED ACROSS THE PLAINS.

AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...MAINLY NRN MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD INTO ONTARIO AS WARM FRONT RETREATS TOWARD JAMES BAY. 
LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF SFC CYCLONE WILL ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PARCELS WILL NEED MINIMAL FORCING TO REACH THEIR LFC. 
HOWEVER...VEERING PROFILES AND NWD SHIFT OF DEEP ASCENT ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS.  AS VERTICAL COLUMN COOLS...PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL SURGE MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS NERN MT OR NWRN ND.  IF ACTIVITY CAN EVOLVE NEAR
REGION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS...A FEW UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
HAIL.  OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED WITHIN POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT STRETCHING FROM SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...NEWD
INTO MANITOBA.

..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 09/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.