[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100105
SWODY1
SPC AC 100103

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GBN 45 WSW GCN
20 S CDC 60 NNE P38 75 SW ELY TPH 15 NNW BIH 50 NE MER 35 ENE SAC 25
E RBL 45 ESE MHS 25 SSE 4LW BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK
...CONT... 35 ESE ANJ 10 SSE TVC 25 ESE CWA 15 N MSP 15 N BKX 30 SE
ANW 15 SE GLD 15 NNE CAO 10 NNE 4CR 10 WNW ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT
15 NNE GLS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL ROCKIES...

00Z SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF UPPER MAIN TROUGH CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO INTO ERN AZ.  IT APPEARS A LEAD DISTURBANCE IS
ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH WITH BACKING MID
LEVEL FLOW NOTED AT BOTH GJT AND SLC.  THERE IS SOME QUESTION
WHETHER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF LEAD
CONVECTION ACROSS CO.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ AS SWLY FLOW
DEEPENS ALONG SRN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SRN ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS TOWARD NM
BORDER.  ERN UT/WRN CO SHOULD HAVE LITTLE SEVERE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL NOT MATERIALIZE. 
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL DRYING CERTAINLY MINIMIZES OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT.  OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY YET ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO BEFORE
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS IN MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...

PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AID SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FOCUSED LLJ ACROSS ERN SD INTO NRN MN WILL FAVOR PARCEL
ASCENT ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD RANGE
FROM 500-1000 J/KG.  PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 09/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.