[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 092002
SWODY1
SPC AC 092000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW
CMX 55 WSW IWD 15 SE BRD 50 SE FAR 35 S GFK 10 ENE RRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE
SOW 20 S PHX 55 NW GBN 55 S SGU 35 W OGD 25 NE OGD 50 ENE EVW 40 NE
VEL 35 WSW CAG 15 SSE CEZ 50 ENE SOW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE ANJ 10 SSE TVC
25 ESE CWA 15 N MSP 15 N BKX 30 SE ANW 15 SE GLD 15 NNE CAO 10 NNE
4CR 10 WNW ELP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 30 E LAS 55 NNW P38 55 SW ELY
55 SE U31 35 NW TPH 15 NNW BIH 50 NE MER 45 SW TVL 60 ESE RBL 40 NW
SVE 50 ESE 4LW BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT
15 NNE GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PSK 20 S JKL
40 S PAH 50 N POF 45 SSW UIN 25 NW UIN 35 ESE BRL 20 WSW BMI 20 SE
DNV 30 NW ZZV 10 NW LBE 25 NNW HGR 25 E MRB 10 NW CHO 15 NNE PSK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN
SWD INTO AZ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN INTO THE
WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...GREAT BASIN SWD INTO THE AZ DESERTS...
TSTM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED RATHER EARLY TODAY AS A BAND OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WRN NV UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO SPREAD
EWD.  THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND WEAKEN AS IT
EJECTS NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT.  

GOES SOUNDER CONTINUES TO SHOW PWAT OF 1-1.5 INCHES ADVECTING NWD
FROM THE AZ DESERTS NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN UT THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER IMPULSE. TYPICALLY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE WAS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPES FROM NRN AZ INTO CNTRL/ERN UT...SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TSTMS.

AS 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM KFLG/KSLC/KPHX SUGGEST...STRONGEST VERTICAL
SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS MOSTLY NRN/CNTRL AZ INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE 45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NOTED.  CONSEQUENTLY...TSTMS WILL
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO AS THEY MOVE TOWARD SWRN WY AND
WRN CO LATER THIS EVENING.

FARTHER S...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE
THE AZ DESERTS LATER THIS AFTN.  TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL AZ LATER THIS AFTN.  EFFECTIVE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE LESS THAN FARTHER N...BUT STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE
OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO.

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY...
PLAN-VIEW VWP AND OBJECTIVELY DERIVED THERMAL ADVECTIVE FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS
THE RED RVR VLY EWD INTO NRN MN.  THIS REGION IS SITUATED ALONG THE
EDGE OF A STRONG CAP COVERING THE NRN PLAINS AND PARCELS REACHING
THE LFC EXHIBIT MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STRONG ELEVATED TSTMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE AND HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  GIVEN MAINTENANCE OF THE SSWLY LLJ INTO
THIS REGIN THROUGH THE NIGHT...TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER NRN MN...AND TRACK ESEWD TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR OR NWRN WI DURING THE NIGHT.

FARTHER W...SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS
THE DAKS.  BUT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH NRN SD WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CONVECTION.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS SERN ND
AND EXTREME NERN SD HAS BECOME VERY WARM.  THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT CONVECTION MAY EITHER DEVELOP AND/OR ROOT INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IF HEATING/LARGE SCALE ASCENT CAN ERODE THE CINH
SUFFICIENTLY LATER THIS AFTN/EVE.  IF AN UPDRAFT CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT GIVEN THE
30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

..RACY.. 09/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.