[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091603
SWODY1
SPC AC 091601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW
CMX 55 WSW IWD 15 SE BRD 50 SE FAR 50 SE JMS 30 NNE MBG 35 NW MBG 20
WSW BIS 40 SW DVL 70 N GFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE
SOW 50 E PHX 10 NW PRC 55 S SGU MLF 55 WNW PUC 30 NW VEL 40 NE VEL
35 WSW CAG 15 SSE CEZ 50 ENE SOW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CTY 30 NE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE ANJ 10 SSE TVC
25 ESE CWA 15 N MSP 15 N BKX 30 SE ANW 15 SE GLD 15 NNE CAO 10 NNE
4CR 10 WNW ELP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 30 E LAS 55 NNW P38 55 SW ELY
55 SE U31 35 NW TPH 15 NNW BIH 50 NE MER 45 SW TVL 60 ESE RBL 40 NW
SVE 50 ESE 4LW BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CTY 10 NNE SSI
...CONT... 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT 15 NNE GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PSK 20 S JKL
40 S PAH 50 N POF 45 SSW UIN 25 NW UIN 35 ESE BRL 20 WSW BMI 20 SE
DNV 30 NW ZZV 10 NW LBE 25 NNW HGR 25 E MRB 10 NW CHO 15 NNE PSK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND AND NRN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION
INTO NRN/CENTRAL AZ...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS STRONG UPPER LOW DIGS SWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW...RESULTING IN
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA BEING EJECTED NEWD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES.  WEAKER SHORT WAVES ARE ALSO
NOTED OVER ERN WY AND CENTRAL ND.  FARTHER EAST...UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ERN PLAINS WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD AS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NERN STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SEWD FROM SRN MT/SD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NWD TOWARD
THE CANADIAN BORDER.

...ND/NRN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...
ELEVATED STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE ENEWD FROM ERN ND INTO NRN MN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION BEST IDENTIFIED NEAR 850 MB. 
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 C/KM EXHIBITED BY AREA 12Z
SOUNDINGS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM LAYER BASED NEAR 850 MB...AND
THIS VERTICAL STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...
PERSISTENT LIFT ABOVE THE CAP MAY ALLOW ELEVATED STORMS TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/ERN ND EWD AND NRN MN INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  RADAR INDICATES MOST STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE HAD
SHORT-LIVED INTENSE UPDRAFTS ALTHOUGH RECENT ACTIVITY NEAR THE RED
RIVER HAS MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFT CHARACTERISTICS.  THREAT FOR
STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND NRN MN...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NWRN WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD IN ADVANCE OF ERN WY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND THESE MAY SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF ND THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT IF THESE STORMS CAN SPREAD
DOWNSTREAM TOWARD LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS ERN PARTS OF DAKOTAS/WRN
MN AND PERSIST...THEY MAY ALSO POSE THREAT FOR ELEVATED HAIL.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...HOWEVER CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE ERN WY SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED.

...UT/NRN AZ REGION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA
IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EWD...AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
OPEN INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT.  STRONG
SSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
ENHANCE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  12Z SOUNDINGS AT FGZ/SLC/GJT INDICATE PRESENCE OF AMPLE
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA 0.75 IN AND LOWER LEVEL
MIXING RATIOS AOA 8 G/KG...SUGGESTING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY.  STEEP LAPSE
RATES...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND ADVANCING MID LEVEL
DRY INTRUSION SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL TO DEVELOP...MAINLY FROM
MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

..WEISS/BANACOS.. 09/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.