[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091259
SWODY1
SPC AC 091258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E
ELO 55 S DLH 10 NNE STC 50 SE FAR 45 SE JMS 50 SSW DVL 60 N DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
PRC 15 E CDC 50 NE U24 30 NW VEL 40 WSW MTJ 55 ENE SOW 65 ENE PHX 20
N PRC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT
15 NNE GLS ...CONT... 20 SSW CTY 30 NE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ANJ 30 ENE GRB
25 ENE RST 15 N BKX 30 SE ANW 15 SE GLD 15 NNE CAO 10 NNE 4CR 10 WNW
ELP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 30 E LAS 55 NNW P38 65 SE U31 40 SE NFL
RNO 35 SSW SVE 55 NW SVE 60 ESE 4LW 10 NE BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT
55 NE MFR 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DBQ 10 NE MMO
45 NNE LAF 30 SW FDY 15 NNW UNI 30 ESE JKL 30 W CSV 50 NE MKL 55 NW
POF 25 WSW COU 10 SSE IRK 30 NE OTM 25 SSE DBQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE
PERSISTS IN THE E AND TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE FAR W.  UPR LOW
NOW DEVELOPING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND SHOULD SETTLE SE INTO THE NWRN
U.S. TODAY AS UPR LOW ATTM NEAR SFO EJECTS NE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN. 
FARTHER E...DOWNSTREAM IMPULSES NOW OVER UT AND ERN WY EXPECTED TO
LIFT RESPECTIVELY NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS...AND ENE ACROSS THE
NRN PLNS.

...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY...
IMPULSE EXITING WY THIS MORNING WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND N OF
WARM FRONT CROSSING THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. 
COUPLED WITH MODERATE MOISTURE INFLOW /PWS AOA ONE INCH/...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40+ KT WLY FLOW AT 500 MB...SETUP COULD
SUPPORT A FEW SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
WITH HAIL FROM ERN ND INTO THE NRN HALF OF MN. THIS THREAT SHOULD
EDGE E/NE WITH TIME AND DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE DAY AS IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED LLJ MOVE BEYOND AXIS OF GREATEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SIMILAR WARM ADVECTION STORMS MAY FORM OVER FAR
NERN ND/NRN NM TONIGHT AS LLJ DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS AND UPSTREAM
IMPULSE BEGINS TO APPROACH REGION.  BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER... EXPECT
THAT WARMER 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES AND BACKED MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
HAVE OVERSPREAD REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING WRN TROUGH. 
RESULTING CAP SHOULD SHUNT ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT N OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

...AZ/UT/WRN CO/WRN NM...
SUBSTANTIAL QG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF UT/AZ AND
CO/NW NM LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPR LOW NOW NEAR SFO CONTINUES E
ACROSS NV TODAY...AND THEN TURNS MORE NE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN
TONIGHT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST OBSERVED PW/RAOB DATA
INDICATE THAT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
REGION FROM NRN MEXICO.  PW VALUES ARE ALREADY ABOVE ONE INCH IN SRN
AZ...AND COULD RISE TO NEARLY AN INCH OVER NRN AZ AND ERN UT LATER
TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALSO HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY AT
FGZ RELATIVE TO LAST EVENING.

STRONG HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TODAY IN WAKE OF ERN UT UPR DISTURBANCE.
GIVEN EXISTING STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT...SETUP MAY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR THE 4-CORNERS.  WITH DEEP SSWLY SHEAR LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN TO AOA 40 KTS AHEAD OF CA/NV TROUGH...ACTIVITY MAY BECOME
SUSTAINED AND ORGANIZED INTO ONE OR TWO BANDS/CLUSTERS THAT POSE A
THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND.

...NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS...
AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BACKED MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW AND REDUCED DEEP SHEAR ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL HI PLAINS RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.  BUT A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL DEVELOP
INVOF THE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN TODAY.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD...
HOWEVER...REMAIN WEAK IN WAKE OF UPR IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE
REGION.  LEE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED
IN MT.

SFC HEATING MAY ALLOW PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY SERVING AS AN INITIATING
ZONE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS.  BUT EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE OF
THIS HIGH BASED ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL ATTM.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 09/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.